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Posted Friday at 2:30pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 3

September 27

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Washington +7½ over Seattle

1:00 PM EST. There might not be a hotter stock in the NFL right now than Seattle. The defending champs are 2-0, their defense has been outstanding, and they just went into Arizona and completely dismantled a Cardinals team that had beaten the Chargers the previous week. Seattle's Week 1 performance wasn't particularly pretty, but that seems like ancient history now. Everybody loves the Seahawks again snd that's precisely why we're taking Washington.

This isn't an argument that the Commanders are better than Seattle. They're not. It's an argument about price. There is a huge difference between asking which team you would rather have and asking whether that team should be laying more than a touchdown on the road. Once we get to Washington +7½, we're being paid a pretty substantial premium to hold our nose and take the uglier side.

Jayden Daniels being out is obviously a major part of this number. His elbow injury looked awful, and anytime a starting quarterback goes down, the market reacts immediately. Sometimes it doesn't react enough. Sometimes it reacts too much. We believe this is the latter. Marcus Mariota isn't Daniels and nobody is suggesting otherwise, but he's also not some kid being thrown onto an NFL field for the first time. He's been around forever, he knows the offense, and Washington shouldn't have to reinvent everything simply because he's under center.

Seattle has its own backup quarterback playing in Drew Lock. He's been excellent, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been ridiculous, but we're now being asked to pay for all of it. That's usually where we become uncomfortable. A backup quarterback plays well for a couple of weeks, the defense looks dominant, the team keeps winning and suddenly the market starts pricing them as if nothing can go wrong. Things go wrong very quickly in this league.

That's especially true after two games. We're still dealing with microscopic samples. Seattle's defense may indeed be one of the best in football, but we're not interested in projecting two September performances over an entire season. The same applies in the opposite direction to Washington. The Commanders are 0-2 and have looked lousy defensively, but two games don't suddenly make them incapable of competing at home.

The perception gap between these teams is enormous right now. Seattle is being discussed like a machine while Washington has become damaged goods because of an 0-2 start and the Daniels injury. When everybody wants one side and nobody wants anything to do with the other, we're usually interested in taking a closer look at the team nobody wants. We're not asking Washington to win the game. We're asking them to stay within a touchdown at home against a Seattle team whose stock couldn't possibly be much higher. Recommendation: Washington +7½

Cleveland +2½ over Carolina

1:00 PM EST. We're going back to the Brownies after cashing with them as a sizable road dog in Tampa last week, and this one is almost entirely about market perception. Carolina's stock is through the roof after two performances that have people looking at the Panthers in an entirely different light. They lost 59-34 in Week 1 but they put up video-game numbers, then came back last week and absolutely destroyed Atlanta, 34-3. After watching Atlanta beat Green Bay on Thursday night, maybe that Carolina performance deserves even more respect than it was getting. The Panthers offense is locked in and offense sells. That's also why they're now favored on the road.

We're not interested in diminishing what Carolina has accomplished. We're interested in how quickly the market has reacted to it. Two games into an NFL season, opinions change at warp speed. A team looks great for eight quarters and suddenly everyone wants a piece of them. Carolina has become one of those teams, and the price has moved accordingly.

What's getting considerably less attention is Cleveland's defense. The Brownies have a massive defensive advantage in this matchup, and that's being overshadowed by all the attention Carolina's offense is receiving. Bryce Young has been excellent, Tetairoa McMillan already looks like a serious weapon, and the Panthers are averaging 35½ points through two games. Those numbers jump off the page. Cleveland's defensive work isn't nearly as sexy, but it matters every bit as much when we're being offered points with the Browns at home.

Then there's Deshaun Watson, whose stock couldn't have been much lower after Cleveland's opening loss to Jacksonville. Watson hadn't started a regular-season game since October 2024 before Week 1, and the immediate reaction was predictable when he struggled. One week later, he went into Tampa and completed 24-of-30 passes for 238 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, helping Cleveland erase a 16-6 second-half deficit and win outright.

Watson was better than Baker Mayfield last week. Nobody wants to say it because Watson has become radioactive in the court of public opinion, but we're talking about football and point spreads, not popularity contests. He looked considerably more comfortable in his second game back, and if the market was quick to punish Cleveland for what happened in Jacksonville, it hasn't been nearly as quick to reward the Browns for what happened in Tampa. That's where the discrepancy lies. Carolina is being priced off two excellent offensive performances, while Cleveland is still carrying much of the baggage from its ugly opener. The Panthers' stock has exploded. The Brownies' stock hasn't.

Cleveland also finally comes home after opening the season with consecutive road games. The Browns are 1-1, Carolina is 1-1, yet the perception surrounding these teams couldn't be more different. One has become an early-season darling. The other remains a team almost nobody wants anything to do with. That's exactly the type of market overreaction we're looking for.

Carolina may turn out to be considerably better than anticipated this season. After two games, however, the market is already charging admission as though that's been established. Meanwhile, Cleveland just went into Tampa and won behind an outstanding defensive effort and the best game Watson has played in a Browns uniform in a long time. We're selling the Carolina hype while the price is inflated and buying the Brownies while the market is still reluctant to do so. Recommendation: Cleveland +2½

Indianapolis +1½ over Houston

1:00 PM EST. Two 0-2 teams meet in Indianapolis, and yet the market is still asking us to treat Houston like the considerably better football team. The Texans are laying points on the road despite opening the season with consecutive losses, and the public perception surrounding these teams couldn't be much different. Houston is still viewed as a talented team that's going to figure things out. Indianapolis is riding a nine-game losing streak dating back to last season and has already allowed 74 points. That's exactly the type of perception gap that gets our attention.

Houston might be the most excused 0-2 team in football. The Texans outgained Cincinnati 374-267 last week, C.J. Stroud threw for 353 yards, and the defense played well enough to win. That's all true. They also scored six points. Houston went 0-for-4 in the red zone and has now gone 16 consecutive possessions without scoring a touchdown. At some point, actual production has to matter more than how good everyone thinks this offense should eventually become.

Nico Collins' status matters enormously. Stroud simply isn't the same quarterback without his best receiver, and Houston's offense looked completely disjointed without Collins against Cincinnati. The running game didn't provide much help either. The Texans have enough talent for everyone to keep expecting an offensive breakout, but expectations are precisely what we're betting against here.

Indianapolis has been getting destroyed for its defense, and deservedly so. The Colts have surrendered 1,029 yards through two games, so there isn't much lipstick available for that pig. But that ugly defensive number is also baked directly into this line. Everybody knows Indianapolis can't stop anybody. Everybody has watched Houston's defense perform considerably better. And after all of that, the Texans are still only 1½-point favorites.

The part of Indianapolis that is being overshadowed by its defensive problems is an offense that has shown it can move the football. Jonathan Taylor has been outstanding, and the Colts have been one of the league's most effective rushing teams through two weeks. Daniel Jones also started using his legs more against Kansas City after understandably being cautious in his first game back from the Achilles injury. Alec Pierce's absence hurts, but Indianapolis isn't completely dependent on throwing the football to function offensively.

There's also an interesting disconnect between the records and the competition. Indianapolis opened against Baltimore and Kansas City and took the Chiefs to overtime at Arrowhead. Houston opened at home twice and lost both games. Yet Houston's preseason reputation remains strong enough that the Texans are favored in Indianapolis.

The Colts and Texans are both 0-2, both are desperate, and both have obvious problems. The market, however, continues pricing Houston according to what everyone believes the Texans should be, while Indianapolis is being priced according to everything that's gone wrong.

Even after nine consecutive Indianapolis losses and one of the ugliest two-game defensive starts imaginable, Houston is being asked to win on the road to cash a ticket.  That's a market overreaction we're willing to play against. Recommendation: Indianapolis outright.

Pittsburgh +3½ over Cincinnati

1:00 PM EST. There probably isn't a team in football that has looked worse offensively than Pittsburgh through two weeks, and that includes Miami and Green Bay. The Steelers can't move five yards, they're averaging 11½ points per game, and Aaron Rodgers looks closer to 60 than 40. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 2-0, has covered both games and just held Houston to six points. Nobody in their right mind wants Pittsburgh here, which is precisely why we're interested.

This number is almost entirely about perception. Cincinnati has done nothing wrong, while Pittsburgh is coming off an embarrassing 20-3 loss in New England in which the offense looked completely helpless. Put those two pictures side by side and laying a lousy field goal with the unbeaten Bengals looks like free money. That's the trap. If Cincinnati is as good as everybody suddenly believes and Pittsburgh is as hopeless as it has looked, why are the Bengals only being asked to lay 3½ points

There's also a massive difference between playing Pittsburgh and playing Pittsburgh in an AFC North game at Heinz Field — and yes, we'll always call it Heinz Field. These divisional games have a tendency to become street fights regardless of what either team looked like the previous Sunday. Cincinnati's 2-0 record doesn't suddenly erase that dynamic, and two ugly Pittsburgh performances don't establish what this team will be for the next four months. The market has taken two weeks of football and raced to opposite extremes with these two teams.

This is buying a stock after everybody has dumped it and selling one after everybody has piled in. Pittsburgh's stock could not possibly be lower, Cincinnati's couldn't be much higher, and yet the Steelers are sitting at home taking back 3½. That's the entire handicap. We're not interested in laying points with the popular 2-0 team after its stock has already soared. Give us the ugly, unwanted home dog and the hook. Recommendation: Pittsburgh +3½.

N.Y. Jets +6½ over Detroit

1:00 PM EST. The Jets might be the most under-the-radar team in the NFL right now, largely because they're still the Jets and they continue finding extraordinary ways to lose football games. They crushed Tennessee in Week 1 and absolutely dominated Green Bay last week, only to somehow turn that game into an overtime loss. Look at the box score without knowing the final score and you'd swear the Jets won by four touchdowns. Aaron Glenn's late fourth-down decision was a coaching disaster, but we're far more interested in what happened during the other 59 minutes. New York has allowed just 394 total yards through two games, has yet to commit a turnover and has outgained both opponents. This team could very easily be 2-0.

Detroit is almost the exact opposite. The Lions' reputation remains attached to the powerhouse they've been the past few seasons, but this year's defense couldn't stop the marching band. They've allowed at least 30 points and 446 yards in both games, including 658 yards through the air. Don't be fooled by last week's final score in Buffalo, either. Detroit fell behind 21-0 before the Bills took their foot off the gas and allowed the Lions to make the scoreboard respectable. Buffalo's defense has been getting shredded by everybody, so Detroit piling up yards while chasing a huge deficit doesn't suddenly erase what has been an atrocious defensive start.

That's where the market perception is completely out of whack. Detroit still carries the price tag of a Super Bowl contender, while New York continues carrying the baggage of years of losing. The Jets have been dramatically better than their reputation through two games, while the Lions have been considerably worse than theirs. New York's defense is absolutely capable of slowing Detroit down, and the Lions' nonexistent defense presents a completely different challenge for a Jets offense that has already demonstrated it can move the football. Yet the market is asking New York to take back 6½ points.

And 6½ is one of our favorite underdog numbers because teams catching that many points aren't being priced like equals, even when the matchup suggests they're much closer than the market believes. That's precisely what we have here. Detroit's stock remains inflated because of what the Lions have been, while the Jets' stock remains depressed because of what they've been for years. Forget the logos and reputations and look at what these teams have actually put on the field through two weeks. The Jets can win this game outright. Taking back +6½ is simply too much. Recommendation: New York Jets +6½.

N.Y. Giants -2½ over Tennessee

1:00 PM EST. If you're looking for market overreactions, we have three of them wrapped into one game. Tennessee just pushed Philadelphia to the absolute limit in a game that received plenty of attention because the Eagles were one of the week's most popular survivor selections. Meanwhile, the Giants got their asses handed to them by the Rams on Monday Night Football with the entire country watching. Add Jaxson Dart's season-ending injury to the equation and you have the perfect storm. Tennessee's stock went straight up, the Giants' stock crashed, and the quarterback news poured gasoline on the fire.

The Dart injury has produced a massive adjustment by itself. The Giants were roughly -6½ in this matchup before losing their starting quarterback and are now laying only -2½ at home. That's a four-point move largely because Jameis Winston is taking over, and Winston's ugly relief appearance against the Rams certainly didn't help. He went 11-of-27 for 111 yards with no touchdowns and an interception, but there's an enormous difference between being thrown into a Monday night game against the Rams after Dart goes down on the opening possession and preparing all week as the starter. Winston is a 12-year NFL veteran with plenty of starting experience. The market is treating the drop from Dart to Winston as enormous, and we're not convinced it is.

At the same time, Tennessee is getting upgraded for losing. The Titans gave Philadelphia everything it could handle, and anybody holding an Eagles survivor ticket remembers sweating that game like a motherfucker. Cam Ward played well, Tennessee led with under two minutes remaining, and the Titans suddenly looked nothing like the team the market wanted no part of entering the season. But they're still 0-2. One impressive performance against a Super Bowl contender doesn't suddenly make Tennessee worthy of this dramatic adjustment, particularly when that performance came in one of the most closely watched games of the weekend.

So there it is: triple market overreaction. Tennessee looked great in a highly visible game, the Giants looked like dog shit in an even more visible prime-time game, and New York lost Dart for the season. All three are being hammered into this number at once. A matchup that had the Giants favored by nearly a touchdown is now asking them to lay just 2½ at home, and the replacement quarterback isn't some practice-squad kid being introduced to the NFL. It's Jameis Winston. That's too much movement based on everything everybody just watched. We'll lay the short price with Big Blue. Recommendation: N.Y. Giants

New England +2½ over Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST. Jacksonville's first two games are a pretty good example of why reacting too strongly to one NFL performance can be expensive. The Jaguars came out and destroyed Cleveland, 34-10, with Trevor Lawrence throwing four touchdowns and looking almost flawless. One week later, Lawrence threw for 189 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in a 20-13 loss at Denver. The quarterback who looked unstoppable in Week 1 suddenly looked very ordinary. That's the NFL, but Jacksonville is still carrying some of the market respect it earned from that opening-week demolition.

New England isn't nearly as attractive to the betting public because the Patriots aren't doing anything flashy. They've scored only 30 points through two games, and seven of those came from the defense. They lost 13-10 in Seattle and then completely suffocated Pittsburgh, 20-3. That style isn't going to generate much excitement, but Mike Vrabel has New England playing exactly the kind of football that travels — defense, patience and making the other team work for everything. While Jacksonville's performances have swung wildly from one week to the next, the Patriots have been remarkably difficult to score against.

The perception difference is what interests us. Jacksonville still has the former No. 1 overall pick at quarterback, an offense that produced fireworks in Week 1 and the home field. New England has an offense nobody wants to watch and a defense doing most of the heavy lifting. Put those ingredients together and the Jaguars become the much easier team to back. But we're not interested in paying for Jacksonville's ceiling after seeing just how quickly that Week 1 performance disappeared in Denver. Lawrence's passer rating dropped from 150.6 to 63.7 in seven days. That's not a small correction; that's a reminder of how little two games actually tell us.

So we'll take the ugly team getting points. Jacksonville is being priced more off what everyone saw against Cleveland, while New England continues to get discounted because its offense isn't producing highlight reels. The Patriots' defense is capable of making this uncomfortable from beginning to end, and in a matchup between two 1-1 teams that appear much closer than public perception suggests, +2½ is the side of the market we want. Recommendation: New England 

L.A. Chargers +7½ over Buffalo

1:00 PM EST. There might not be a more hated stock in the NFL right now than the L.A. Chargers. They were substantial favorites in each of their first two games and lost both outright, at home no less. Now they're 0-2, traveling across the country, and Justin Herbert is getting hammered from every direction. Meanwhile, Buffalo has been an ATM machine. The Bills have put up video-game numbers, jumped all over Detroit in prime time last week and were ahead 21-0 before some people had finished dinner. Sides were cashing, props were cashing, everything was coming up Buffalo. Now the hottest stock in the league is laying more than a touchdown against the stock nobody wants to own.

The Herbert criticism is particularly interesting because the list of excuses surrounding him over the years has been endless. He didn't have receivers. He didn't have protection. The offensive line wasn't good enough. The coaching was terrible. The organization failed him. At some point, the excuses run out. Herbert has all the physical tools in the world and has shown plenty of flashes of brilliance, but the market has finally reached the point where it doesn't want to hear any more of it. A Chargers team that entered the season with legitimate expectations has gone from respected to radioactive in two weeks. Nobody wants the Chargers this week. Nobody.

At the same time, Buffalo's offense has made it very easy to ignore what's happening on the other side of the football. The Bills can score with anybody, but their defense has been getting shredded. Detroit piled up yards against them last week after falling behind 21-0, and Buffalo has been vulnerable enough defensively that this is hardly the ideal opponent to be laying a huge number against. That's getting buried because Josh Allen and the offense have been so spectacular. When a team is scoring at will and cashing tickets everywhere, nobody spends much time looking for cracks in the foundation.

This is about as extreme a perception gap as we'll find. Buffalo has spent two weeks rewarding everybody who backed them, while Chargers bettors have been kicked in the teeth twice as big favorites. Now the market has gone from asking Los Angeles to lay substantial points to handing them +7½. That's a violent adjustment after eight quarters of football. The Chargers' stock might not have been this low in half a century, while Buffalo couldn't possibly be more popular. That's exactly when we're willing to buy the garbage everyone else is throwing away. Recommendation: L.A. Chargers +7½.

Miami +10½ over Kansas City

1:00 PM EST. Get the gas mask out because Miami might be the most disgusting ticket on the board, but the situational setup here is almost too good to ignore. Kansas City opened its season under the bright lights of Monday Night Football against Denver with Patrick Mahomes back and enormous expectations surrounding the Chiefs. The emotion was through the roof and Kansas City won. Six days later, right back under the lights for Sunday Night Football against Indianapolis. This time the Chiefs were pushed to the absolute limit, had to rally and eventually survived 33-30 in overtime. Two games, two prime-time showcases, two emotional battles and now a 2-0 record. What comes next? Miami at one o'clock in the afternoon as a double-digit favorite. Talk about going from the penthouse to taking out the garbage. And it gets better. Sitting directly behind Miami on Kansas City's schedule is Las Vegas, the Chiefs' most hated rival and a Raiders team that entered this week 2-0 and could potentially arrive at that game 3-0. Chiefs-Raiders doesn't require anybody in that locker room to circle the date with a red marker. That rivalry has been around forever. So Kansas City has just finished two nationally televised, emotionally charged games, including an overtime war, and has its biggest rival waiting next week. Sandwiched directly between all of that is an 0-2 Miami team that's been outscored 62-26. If there were ever a game where a superior team could subconsciously figure all it has to do is get off the bus, collect the win and get the hell out of town, this would be it. Meanwhile, Miami has been humiliated for two straight weeks and now gets the exact opposite situation. Nobody wants the Dolphins. Malik Willis has been sacked nine times, they're 0-2 and they're hosting Patrick Mahomes. The market has essentially hung a sign around their neck that says DEAD TEAM WALKING. But Kansas City is also coming off a full overtime period Sunday night and now has to travel to South Florida for an early-afternoon game in the Miami heat. The Chiefs aren't walking into this thing fresh, emotionally or physically. They're walking into it after two weeks in which virtually every snap mattered, and now they're being asked to cover more than ten points against an opponent the entire football world expects them to destroy. That's the entire handicap. This isn't about pretending Miami is good or arguing that the Dolphins suddenly belong in Kansas City's class. They don't. It's about catching Kansas City in an absolutely miserable situational spot while getting +10½ with a team nobody could possibly want. The Chiefs have been on center stage for two straight weeks, just played overtime, are traveling to the South Florida heat and have the Raiders waiting on deck. Miami is the forgettable game stuffed directly between all of it. Kansas City can absolutely win this football game. But this has flat spot written all over it. Hold your nose, put on the gas mask and take the inflated number. Recommendation: Miami +10½.

Minnesota -1½ over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM EST. We're laying the short road price with Minnesota because this matchup looks absolutely miserable for Baker Mayfield. Tampa Bay is 0-2, Baker has already been sacked seven times, and he's averaging a career-low 6.4 yards per attempt. Now he gets Brian Flores and a Minnesota defense that has been fucking outstanding. The Vikings have eight sacks through two games and have generated pressure on nearly half of their opponents' dropbacks despite facing Jordan Love and Caleb Williams. Going from those two to Baker Mayfield feels a little like Bill Gates finishing a computer-science exam and being told the bonus question will be administered by Donald Trump.

Flores has been sending pressure from everywhere. Minnesota has reportedly blitzed on roughly three-quarters of its defensive snaps, and quarterbacks haven't been able to figure out where it's coming from. That's particularly bad news for Baker, whose natural response to pressure has always been to turn a routine football play into a fire drill. He'll scramble right, reverse field, pump fake twice, escape one defender, nearly fall down and then attempt a throw across his body that makes you wonder whether he's playing quarterback or auditioning for Jackass. Against this defense, improvisation can turn into catastrophe pretty fucking quickly.

And we're officially running out of Baker excuses. He's had bad coaches, bad offensive lines, injured receivers, no running game, not enough protection and not enough help. The excuse list is longer than a CVS receipt. At some point the quarterback gets included in the discussion. Tampa Bay declined to give him the long-term extension he was looking for before the season, and two games into this one, the Bucs are 0-2 and Baker is already getting beaten up. Minnesota isn't arriving in Tampa with some ordinary defense either. Flores has constructed one of the most disruptive units we've seen through the first two weeks, and now he gets a quarterback who has never met a collapsing pocket he couldn't make more interesting.

Best of all, Minnesota isn't carrying some ridiculous premium because of it. The Vikings are laying just 1½ on the road against a winless Tampa team whose quarterback is walking directly into its greatest strength. Tampa has already spent two weeks looking disorganized and sloppy, and now Baker gets Flores throwing blitzes at him from every zip code in Minnesota. That matchup is simply too attractive at this price. Baker Mayfield against Brian Flores' defense looks like a guy showing up for a chess match and discovering the other guy brought a computer. Recommendation: Minnesota -1½.

Arizona +8½ over San Francisco

4:05 PM EST. If football games were played using last week's box score, we'd have absolutely no interest in Arizona. The Cardinals just got humiliated 31-7 at home by Seattle, producing 151 yards of offense while Jacoby Brissett threw for all of 95 yards. It was hideous. Meanwhile, San Francisco has spent two weeks looking like the '85 Bears with a better quarterback. The 49ers are 2-0, they've outscored the Rams and Dolphins 62-20, Brock Purdy is completing better than 80% of his passes and they scored touchdowns on their first five possessions last week. One team couldn't possibly look better and the other couldn't possibly look worse. Perfect. We'll take +8½.

Arizona's Week 1 victory over the Chargers has already been tossed into the garbage because of what happened against Seattle. That's how quickly perception changes in the NFL. Seven days ago the Cardinals were getting some respect after beating the Chargers 26-14. Now Brissett is garbage, Arizona is garbage and apparently the Cardinals should just stay home rather than bother making the trip to Santa Clara. That's an enormous emotional adjustment based on one atrocious afternoon. We aren't pretending Arizona played well last week. They were fucking awful. That's precisely why we're getting 8½.

On the other side, what exactly hasn't gone right for San Francisco? Purdy has five touchdown passes, hasn't been sacked and is completing an absurd 80.4% of his throws. Christian McCaffrey is scoring touchdowns again, George Kittle is producing, and the defense has been excellent. But there are some cracks beneath all that perfection, particularly at receiver. Demarcus Robinson went down with an ankle injury, Mike Evans left last week's game with a hip issue, and the receiving corps was already dealing with other injuries. None of it has mattered yet because everything San Francisco has touched has turned to gold. That's usually when the market starts charging admission.

This isn't about arguing that Arizona is secretly better than San Francisco. They're not. It's about what you're being asked to pay after two dramatically different performances. The 49ers are being priced at the absolute top of the market while Arizona is being sold out of the trunk of a car. Throw in an NFC West opponent that knows San Francisco extremely well, and 8½ points is an enormous number. Everybody watched Arizona embarrass itself. Everybody watched San Francisco roll. The market responded exactly as you'd expect. Buy the embarrassment and sell the perfection. Recommendation: Arizona +8½.

Las Vegas +3½ over New Orleans

1:00 PM EST. Welcome to the New Orleans Saints bandwagon. Apparently everybody found it at the same time. The Saints spent years being irrelevant, opened this season as a big dog at Detroit and nearly won outright, then came home and knocked off Baltimore, one of the supposed Super Bowl heavyweights. They're 2-0 at the betting window, Tyler Shough leads the NFL with 662 passing yards, and suddenly the Saints are everybody's cute little discovery. Congratulations if you had them the first two weeks. Now you're late. The value was backing New Orleans when nobody wanted them, not after two impressive performances have sent their stock through the roof.

Las Vegas is also 2-0, but apparently those wins don't count because they came against Miami and the Chargers, two teams that are a combined 0-4. That's the perception difference that interests us. New Orleans played Detroit and Baltimore and could very easily be 2-0 outright against two teams everybody considers Super Bowl contenders. Las Vegas beat two teams the market currently considers garbage. Same undefeated record, completely different reaction. Now the Raiders are being handed +3½, and we're perfectly happy buying the undefeated team everybody is busy explaining away.

There are some matchup problems for New Orleans, too. The Raiders have generated pressure on 50% of opposing quarterback dropbacks, the highest rate in the league through two weeks, and Maxx Crosby now gets to attack a Saints offensive line that just lost starting left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. to a significant ankle injury. New Orleans has also been playing with fire. They fell behind Detroit 21-0 and didn't score their first touchdown against Baltimore until the fourth quarter. Give the Saints credit for recovering both times, but continually digging holes and then producing dramatic comebacks is also a great way to make yourself extremely popular at the betting window.

And there's one more little distraction sitting on the calendar. New Orleans hosts Atlanta in prime time next Monday night, something this franchise doesn't get every week anymore. Maybe it means nothing, but after two emotional performances against Detroit and Baltimore, followed by a nationally televised divisional game next week, this is a pretty mundane spot in between against the supposedly unimpressive Raiders. New Orleans has already rewarded its believers twice. We're not showing up after the champagne has been opened and asking for a glass. Everybody is jumping onto the Saints now, so this is precisely when we're jumping off. Recommendation: Las Vegas +3½.

Dallas +3½ over Baltimore

4:25 PM EST. We'll keep this one short because the game is being played in Brazil, and frankly, we're not interested. Another Roger Goodell special — take two NFL teams, ship them thousands of miles away, put them on a neutral field in an unusual environment and call it progress. Fuck Uncle Roger. These international and neutral-site games introduce variables that simply don't exist during a normal NFL week. Travel, routines, unfamiliar surroundings and the entire circus surrounding the event can produce some strange football. Sometimes one team shows up ready to play and the other looks like it left its game plan at customs

There are a thousand opportunities on the board every week, so why force action on a game where we have less confidence in the circumstances? Baltimore has the bigger reputation and Dallas is getting +3½, so if somebody held a gun to our head and demanded a wager, we'd take the Cowboys and the points. But that's about as enthusiastic as we're getting. We don't have to bet every fucking game just because Roger Goodell found another country willing to host one. Recommendation: Dallas +3½ — gun-to-the-head only.

L.A. Rams -2½ over Denver

8:15 PM EST. Amazing what seven days can do. After Week 1, Denver looked like a team ready to be thrown into the Colorado River. Bo Nix was getting questioned, the offense looked awful and Sean Payton was already hearing noise about whether he should take back the play-calling. Then the Broncos erased a 13-3 deficit against Jacksonville, won 20-13, and suddenly everybody can come out of the bunker again. The Rams experienced almost the exact same thing. They were embarrassed 27-7 by San Francisco in Australia, came home and hammered the Giants 28-6, and Matthew Stafford went from looking completely uncomfortable to throwing four touchdown passes. Both teams restored order. The difference is we're being asked to lay only 2½ with StaffordWe're also not convinced Denver's problems disappeared because it won one football game. The Broncos are just 6-for-22 on third down through two weeks and have scored only once in four goal-to-go opportunities. Nix has also thrown costly interceptions in both games, including one in the red zone last week. Denver deserves credit for coming back against Jacksonville, but a fourth-quarter comeback doesn't magically erase everything that happened before it. There's still a pretty significant difference between asking Nix to navigate those problems and putting the ball in Stafford's hands.

Stafford's Week 1 disaster deserves some context, too. San Francisco's pass rush made him miserable in Australia and held the Rams to seven points, an extremely rare offensive dud for a Stafford-led team. His response was exactly what you'd expect from a veteran quarterback who has seen just about everything the NFL can throw at him: four touchdown passes against New York and a game that was essentially over before anyone had to start sweating. Yes, Denver can rush the passer and that's the biggest concern here, but -2½ isn't pricing Los Angeles like some powerhouse coming off a blowout. It's essentially asking Stafford to win the football game.

That's where we'll plant our flag. Denver's comeback restored confidence awfully quickly, but Nix and this offense haven't suddenly become a finished product. Stafford is still the quarterback we'd rather have when the game gets tight, and getting the Rams below the key number of three makes the decision considerably easier. Denver may have rediscovered some of last year's magic, but we're not paying for the resurrection after one comeback against Jacksonville. Give us Stafford at less than a field goal. Recommendation: L.A. Rams -2½.