Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland +130 over Pittsburgh

8:15 PM EST. Thursday Night Football is essentially a cash grab dressed up as a football game. Take two teams that just played Sunday, give their bodies three days to recover, conduct a couple of walkthroughs and send them back onto the field because Amazon needs something to broadcast. That setup doesn't exactly scream lay road chalk. Pittsburgh is coming off its best offensive performance of the season, Cleveland has won two straight, and we're getting +130 with the home team in an AFC North game. We'll take it.

We're also not particularly interested in paying a premium for Pittsburgh after one offensive explosion against Cincinnati. One week earlier, the Steelers scored three points while averaging 3.5 yards per play against New England. Then Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns, Jaylen Warren ran for 127, and Pittsburgh generated 411 yards at 7.0 yards per play against the Bengals. Maybe something clicked. Or maybe we're being asked to buy the Steelers immediately after their best offensive performance in quite some time. We're leaning toward the latter. Regression works both ways.

Then there's Rodgers himself. He played extremely well Sunday, but asking an aging quarterback to turn around four days later and play a physical divisional game on the road isn't something we're anxious to lay money on. That's not a statement that Rodgers suddenly can't play—he just threw three touchdowns. It's a question of recovery and preparation. There is a reason players despise these Thursday games. Cleveland gets the same short week, of course, but we're not being asked to lay a road price with the Browns. We're getting paid +130 to take the home team.

Cleveland has also shown some life after its ugly start. Deshaun Watson has engineered fourth-quarter comebacks in consecutive victories, threw two touchdowns against Carolina and added 45 yards on 11 carries. The offense remains imperfect, but this doesn't require Cleveland to become Kansas City. Pittsburgh has lost four straight in Cleveland and six of its last seven at Huntington Bank Field, and this has all the ingredients of another ugly AFC North street fight. In a game where possessions should be precious and neither team deserves unquestioned trust, we'd much rather take plus money at home than lay a price with a 41-year-old quarterback coming back on four days' rest.

 Sportsinteraction