Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New Orleans -1½ -110 over NY Giants 

1:00 PM EST. It's the Jameis Winston revenge game, baby. Jameis is 3-0 against the spread since taking over the 3-1-1 Giants — first place in the NFC East, somehow — throwing for 326 yards and three touchdowns in back-to-back games. Now he faces the franchise that benched him. He will throw for 400 yards or four interceptions on Sunday. Possibly both. Possibly in the same quarter. You cannot look away.

The case for the Saints is mostly about who's missing on the other sideline: the Giants are down Abdul Carter (doubtful), Tyler Nubin (out), and Colton Hood (out). New Orleans' only win this year came on the road, and this is their first road game in a month — which might help, since they've been awful at home anyway. Tyler Shough (96 yards, two picks, a 38.1 rating last week) literally cannot be worse. That's not analysis, that's math.

This spread has flipped sides three times this week and the total is 45.5, which tells you the market has no idea either. So take the Saints -1.5, because the Giants are the most fraudulent 3-1-1 team in recent memory and Jameis giveth, but mostly he taketh away. Saints by a field goal, everybody booing, everybody entertained.

And about that 3-1-1 record — it might be the most misleading record in football. The Giants' stock is way higher than it should be, while New Orleans' stock has hit rock bottom, on a team that was supposed to be moving up and had a real chance to win the NFC South and instead sits at the bottom of it with one win. Stock high on one side, stock low on the other. That is exactly the type of game we're interested in. Look under the hood at how New York got here. They beat Tennessee 12-7 without scoring a touchdown, in a game they had no business winning. They beat an Arizona team they had no business beating. Then last week they escaped Washington with a 27-27 tie in overtime in a game that was over — the Commanders had the ball at the Giants' 24 with 12 seconds left in overtime, no reason in the world not to kick the winning field goal, and instead ran another play like complete idiots, took a sack, and couldn't get the ball spiked before time ran out.

New York could easily be on an 0-for run right now instead of sitting in first place. Their other win came in Week 1 against a Dallas team that looks like dog shit right now, and the one genuinely good team they've played, the Rams, buried them. So if you bet the Giants this week, understand what you're doing: you may win, but you are very, very late to that party. The smoke-and-mirrors act is about to blow up

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