Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New England +3 -105 over Chicago 

8:15 PM EST. One week ago Caleb Williams came back, threw for 305 yards in Atlanta, had the Bears up 31-7 in the fourth quarter, and just like that Chicago's stock is back through the roof. The talk this week is that with Williams running it, this offense belongs with the best in the league. Maybe it does. What we know for sure is that you're now being asked to lay a field goal with that team, on a short week, in prime time, off one Sunday afternoon. This is not a buy-low on New England either. The Patriots have won three straight and looked good doing it, so nobody is sneaking them in under the radar. This is simpler than that. The Bears' price tonight is built on noise, and noise is exactly what we fade.

Look at what the number did all week, because the number is the tell. Chicago sat at -2½ for days and the books would not budge off it. The juice just kept climbing instead, 20 cents, then 24, then more, and still nobody would hang a 3. When oddsmakers refuse to move off a key number while the price on it keeps rising, they are telling you they like where they sit and they are happy to keep taking the popular side's money at a discount. A short home favorite under the Thursday night lights is catnip for chalk bettors, and the books know it. The line has finally crawled to 3, and at 3 we're happy to take what's being offered. The market has also decided it doesn't trust Drake Maye when the spotlight is on him, and that distrust is baked into this price. We're not here to tell you Maye is going to light up Soldier Field. We're here to tell you he doesn't have to. This offense has traded punches for three straight weeks, all three of those games sailed over the total, and tonight's total of 50½ says points are expected again. In a game expected to be played in the 50s, a field goal is a lot to be handing the visitor.

Full disclosure, because the Patriots are nobody's picture of health coming in. Both starting guards are out, the secondary is missing Carlton Davis, Romeo Doubs is on IR, and Morgan Moses is a game-time decision at tackle. That's real, and it's part of why the number is where it is. But Chicago has its own list, with Kyle Monangai out and T.J. Edwards doubtful, and on four days' rest neither staff is trotting out the team it drew up in September. What you're left with is two banged-up teams on a short week in what profiles as a one-score game, and in a one-score game you take the points, especially when the favorite's premium is one good afternoon in Atlanta. The road team has won and covered each of the last three meetings of these two, including New England's 19-3 win in this same building with these same two quarterbacks. We'll take our chances that this one is close late. Recommendation: New England +3 -105

Saved to your files. One open item, already written into the copy as a game-time decision: Moses's status lands with the inactives around 6:45 PM — if he's out too, I'll flag it here so you can decide whether the play stands as published. 

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