Posted Friday at 2:30pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 7

October 23

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

New Orleans +3½ over Pittsburgh

9:30 PM EST. They're playing football in Paris on Sunday morning (Stade de France), and the Saints got there first. New Orleans was on the ground in France early in the week while Pittsburgh didn't fly out until Thursday night, and in a 9:30 AM body-clock kickoff at a neutral site, the team that's been sleeping in the right time zone all week has a real edge. The designated home team also arrives hot: the Saints just hung 34 straight points on the Giants in a 34-27 win, forcing four turnovers, piling up five sacks and running for a season-high 175 yards.

The matchup Pittsburgh has to survive is its own secondary. Brandin Echols and Ben Skowronek are out, Jalen Ramsey is nursing a wrist and missed Wednesday entirely, and that is exactly where Chris Olave lives. Tyler Shough — playing with broken bones in his non-throwing hand, because of course he is — accounted for four touchdowns against the Giants with zero interceptions, and he'll spend Sunday morning picking at backup corners. Pittsburgh needed overtime to get past Tampa Bay last week, and its offense has already face-planted once this season, managing three points at New England.

The honest problem is ball security: the Saints have given it away 12 times, seven of them lost fumbles, against a Steelers defense with 10 takeaways and 16 sacks, and New Orleans still allows 29.7 points a game. Shough's numbers also sag against zone coverage, and Pittsburgh plays the fifth-most zone in football. But both teams are 4-2 to the Over and Saints games average 55 combined points — a loose, high-variance shootout is precisely the script where plus points cash. Recommendation: New Orleans +3½

Atlanta +3½ over San Francisco

1:00 PM EST. San Francisco is 6-0, and this is still one of the worst scheduling draws on the board: the 49ers played Monday night, and now fly cross-country for a 1 PM kick off on six days. Atlanta, meanwhile, sits at home on a normal week with a healthy Michael Penix Jr., and this offense has already hung 35 at Green Bay and 45 at New Orleans this season.

Penix isn't even the headline — Bijan Robinson is: 641 rushing yards at 5.8 a carry plus 144 receiving yards through six games. San Francisco's defense has to stop him without Nick Bosa, who is out, and the 49ers' own offense has to function with Deebo Samuel out and Mike Evans questionable after leaving Monday's game at halftime with an Achilles issue. It gets better: Atlanta's run defense has allowed only about 83 yards a game, a genuine problem for a McCaffrey-centric offense that watched a 23-3 lead over Washington melt into a three-point second half last week.

The warts are real. Atlanta is 0-3 against the number at home, owns a -7 turnover differential, and just gave up 31 to Chicago — including a 14-0 hole in the first quarter. San Francisco averages nearly 30 a game and converts more than half its third downs. But the Falcons also ripped off 16 fourth-quarter points on the Bears, and with Penix dealing (6 TDs, 1 INT in four starts) the back door in this building is never locked. Short week, long flight, gutted receiver room, the best running back in the game. Recommendation: Atlanta +3½

Indianapolis +6½ over Minnesota

1:00 PM EST. Watch the total, because the total is telling you the whole story: it opened 46.5–47.5 and has crashed to 41.5, the biggest move on the Week 7 board. Minnesota (5-0) wins grinders — 15-10 and 23-13 finals this season, the Under 4-1 in its games — and grinders are where +6.5 goes to thrive . ESPN's model makes the Vikings only a 3.9-point favorite, which means you're being handed 2.6 points of cushion against the number for free.

The Colts' path is Jonathan Taylor and a short game. Taylor takes 22.8 touches a week with an 85% backfield share — 492 yards and seven touchdowns — and every handoff is one less snap for a Minnesota offense that isn't exactly a fireworks show: Kyler Murray (yes, Minnesota's quarterback is Kyler Murray in this timeline) has thrown two touchdown passes in four starts, and Justin Jefferson is nursing an ankle he picked up before the bye. Indianapolis was a Taylor fumble, a Daniel Jones red-zone interception and a blocked punt from beating Tennessee last week; the losses are self-inflicted, not a talent gap.

Self-inflicted is still a problem, though, and here's the rest of it: Jones has been dreadful, Minnesota's Brian Flores is the worst possible matchup for him, Indy is missing Alec Pierce (IR) with Tyler Warren trending out and Sauce Gardner doubtful, the Colts have lost seven straight on the road, and the front office fired the GM this week. Oh, and Minnesota is rested off its bye at home. All true — and all baked into a number that's still two points too fat for a 41.5-total game. Recommendation: Indianapolis +6½

Baltimore -1½ over Cincinnati

1:00 PM EST. Let's not pretend this is complicated: this pick is a Lamar Jackson bet, and right now Jackson is questionable with the ankle, limited in his first practice since Oct. 4, and was seen limping off the field Wednesday. DraftKings and FanDuel have already flipped to Bengals -1.5; a few books still hang Ravens -1.5, which is your number — just know it's only alive while his status is. If he goes anywhere near full strength (70.8% completions, a 119.6 rating and a league-best 10.1 yards per attempt before he got hurt), -1.5 at home is stealing.

Even in the mud, Baltimore has a puncher's path, and it runs through Derrick Henry. Henry leads the league in carries, is tied for the rushing touchdown lead with seven, and Cincinnati has been gashed for 155 rushing yards a game over its last three. Zay Flowers (471 yards, a league-best 3.8 yards per route run) stretches what's left, and Baltimore's offense ranks seventh in scoring at 26 a game even with two Tyler Huntley starts baked in. Huntley himself is a competent floor — 51-of-72, three touchdowns, zero interceptions in relief duty.

The flip side is ugly if Lamar sits: with Huntley in Cleveland last week the Ravens scored 10 points and Henry was held to a season-low 58 yards, while Cincinnati comes in rested off its bye with a healthy Joe Burrow (11 TDs, 3 INTs) and the cleanest injury report in the matchup. Baltimore is 2-4 against the number, too. This one gets rechecked Sunday morning, full stop — but the case at -1.5 is that Jackson plays, Henry leans on a soft run defense for four quarters, and the better roster wins a squeaker at home. Recommendation: Baltimore -1½

Miami +4½ over NY Jets

1:00 PM EST. Division underdogs are 20-8 against the spread this season, the second-best start for division dogs in the Super Bowl era, and Miami walks into MetLife fresh off its bye as exactly that — a divisional dog catching 4½ against a Jets' team that scores 18.7 points a game. Teams that score 18.7 points a game should not be laying 4½ against anybody, including a winless team.

The Jets' offensive line is the other gift. Geno Smith has been sacked 19 times in five games, Breece Hall (quad) has missed three straight and is questionable again, and starting edge Joseph Ossai is trending out — so the Jets may be down their best back and a starting pass rusher in a game they need to win by five. Miami, for once, is the healthy side: Malik Willis is a full participant despite the thumb, Jordyn Brooks and Jonah Savaiinaea are back at full practice, and the Dolphins have had two weeks to cook up a game plan for this specific opponent.

Now the part where we hold our nose: Miami is 0-5 with the league's worst point differential, averages 14 points a game with a season high of 24, and Willis has thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. The Dolphins' passing game is second-worst in football, staring at a Jets pass defense that allows the fourth-fewest yards in the league. It's gross. It's also a bye-rested division dog getting 4.5 from an offense that can't score. Recommendation: Miami +4½

Tennessee +1½ over Cleveland

1:00 PM EST, The lowest total on the Week 7 board — 36.5 to 38.5 depending on the book — and that is the entire argument in one number . This game will be a rock fight, and in a rock fight the home team catching points is holding the better ticket. Tennessee also finally has a pulse: the Titans went to Indianapolis last week and won 26-20, outscoring the Colts 26-7 after halftime to snap a seven-game losing streak, with the defense producing six sacks and three forced turnovers. Jeffery Simmons and Jermaine Johnson II had two sacks apiece — and now they get Deshaun Watson, the most-sacked quarterback in the NFL at 24 and counting.

Cleveland's 4-2 record, meanwhile, has been built entirely in its own building — the Browns are still chasing their first road win since Week 2. Their best offensive weapon, Quinshon Judkins, missed last week with an ankle, was limited Wednesday, and is questionable; if he's out or hobbled, a one-dimensional Cleveland offense is asking Watson to win it from the pocket against that pass rush.

The disclaimer is as big as the case: Tennessee's offense is statistically the worst in football — last in total yards, last in passing yards, 14.0 points a game — and Cam Ward (4 TDs, 4 INTs) has thrown a pick in four straight games. Cleveland's defense is elite, second in sacks with 19, and no quarterback has thrown for 300 yards against it in 51 straight games. The Titans don't cover this with offense; they cover it the way they won last week — sacks, turnovers, field goals and a home crowd in a 20-17 slopfest. Recommendation: Tennessee +1½

Houston -10½ over NY Giants

1:00 PM EST. Start with the other team's quarterback room, because it's a crime scene: Jaxson Dart is out with a knee injury, Jameis Winston has been benched, and J.J. McCarthy — acquired on Sept. 28, still learning the playbook — makes his first start for the Giants on Sunday  In front of him, the offensive line may be down three bodies: Andrew Thomas (groin), Jermaine Eluemunor (calf) and Marcus Mbow (knee) all missed Wednesday's practice. Behind him, nothing — edge rusher Brian Burns, the Giants' best defensive player, is out. And Houston's defense has 18 sacks, tied for third in the league, with Will Anderson Jr. leading the entire NFL at 7½

This is how double-digit covers happen: a fourth-week quarterback, a turnstile line, and a defense that has been strangling people since DeMeco Ryans took back the play-calling — the same unit that held Tennessee to three points in Week 5. Houston's offense is trending up too, with 34 points in London last week, Tank Dell expected back after missing all of 2025, and the recently acquired Marvin Harrison Jr. stretching the field for a healthy C.J. Stroud. The Giants have turned it over 12 times in six games and have gone tie-and-a-loss since starting 3-1.

Two honest warnings, one of which is about your number. First: -10.5 is the worst price on the board — DraftKings hangs -9.5 and bet365 -8.5, so shop it before you bet it. Second: Houston is 2-4 against the spread, the models project 24-20 and 24-17 (neither reaches 10.5), the Texans flew home from Wembley without taking their bye, and Malik Nabers has three straight 100-yard games against a Houston secondary missing chunks. The talent chasm is real, though — a rookie-ish quarterback behind a third-string line in that building is how 31-13 happens. Recommendation: Houston -10½

Tampa Bay +2½ over Carolina

1:00 PM EST. Everything about this game runs through one man's right thumb. Baker Mayfield dislocated it in Week 3, missed three games, and was a full participant Wednesday, splitting reps with rookie Jalon Daniels — Todd Bowles says the call comes Friday. If Mayfield goes, Tampa Bay's ceiling jumps a full tier in a divisional game where the Bucs sit just two games back in the loss column . And if he doesn't, Daniels has quietly kept Tampa in every game he's started, including last week, when the Bucs led Pittsburgh 16-3 in the fourth quarter before losing in overtime.

Carolina's 3-2 and leading the NFC South, but its signature win has an asterisk the size of a billboard: beating Philadelphia looks a lot different when the Eagles were missing Hurts, Barkley, Smith, Dickerson and Johnson, and the Panthers still only won by 11. More importantly for Sunday, both of Carolina's starting cornerbacks — Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson — are on injured reserve. The Panthers are starting backup corners on a defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed, against a returning starting quarterback, in a game lined inside a field goal.

The cold water: Tampa is 1-9 against the spread in its last 10, has allowed 22 sacks, likely loses Antoine Winfield Jr. (doubtful) from its secondary, and Bryce Young is playing the best football of his life — 11 touchdowns against two interceptions for an offense whose 146 points are a franchise record for a five-game start. Carolina's defense has also tightened up, allowing 20 a game over the last two weeks. But divisional game, gutted secondary, a starting QB trending back, and points in your pocket. Recommendation: Tampa Bay +2½

Arizona +4½ over Denver

4:05 PM EST. Denver is 4-2, and Denver is a mirage: the Broncos carry a -11 point differential with a winning record, their offense ranks 31st in explosive-play rate, and Bo Nix — working back from two ankle surgeries — threw for 107 yards and no touchdowns last week while Denver managed 168 total yards and 30 second-half yards against Seattle. That's the favorite you're being asked to lay 4.5 with on the road. The Broncos are also 1-2 against the number away from altitude this season.

Arizona, for all its chaos, has been a live dog all year: 3-3 against the spread as an underdog with two outright wins, including last week's 18-16 ambush of the Rams on six Chad Ryland field goals. Jacoby Brissett (1,328 yards, nine touchdowns) has a clear No. 1 target in Trey McBride (49 catches), and Denver's secondary may be missing the two men who'd deal with him — Pat Surtain II is questionable with an ankle and Talanoa Hufanga is doubtful. With a total of just 43.5 and the Under 5-1 in Denver games, a +4.5 home dog needs a 20-16 kind of afternoon, and these two teams specialize in exactly that kind of ugly.

The bill, honestly presented: Arizona's defense gives up 29.7 points a game, tied for the worst in football; its offense scored zero touchdowns last week; James Conner and left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. are both on IR; the Cardinals are 0-2 against the spread at home; and Denver arrives on ten days' rest after playing last Thursday, a real edge Arizona can't match. Denver's defense (20.8 allowed) is legitimately good. But a favorite that can't score, laying more than a field goal on the road against a team that keeps winning these rock fights outright. Recommendation: Arizona +4½

Green Bay +3½ over Detroit

4:25 PM EST. Your +3.5 is already a win before kickoff — the board sits at Detroit -3, so you've got an extra half-point across the most important number in football. And it might get cheaper by Sunday, because the thing Green Bay has been missing all season is reportedly walking back through the door: Josh Jacobs, out since camp on the exempt list, is back at practice and framed everywhere as making his season debut. The Packers' run game is dead last in the NFL — 59.8 yards a game at 2.9 a carry — entirely because Jacobs hasn't played. NBC's read is that if he's active, this line shrinks toward Detroit -1.5. Your +3.5 would be a stale, generous gift.

Even without him, the matchup throws punches. Jordan Love (1,684 yards, 11 TDs) throws for 281.6 a game — fourth in the league — behind Christian Watson (538 yards, six scores) and Matthew Golden (501, three), and Detroit's secondary is the place to do it: the Lions allowed the most passing yards in the league through four games, Jacoby Brissett just put 292 and three touchdowns on them, and safety Kerby Joseph is out with Brian Branch only just returning. Green Bay's defense travels too — 20.8 points allowed, 193 passing yards a game, 11 takeaways — and it just held Dallas to 13 points in a third straight win and cover.

The other side is no joke: Detroit is rested off its bye at home, Jared Goff has 12 touchdowns against zero interceptions, Jahmyr Gibbs has 504 yards and seven scores, the Lions convert in the red zone at 77.3%, and the 53.5 total is the highest on the board. Green Bay's health is a mess besides Jacobs — Love is questionable with a back, both top receivers are questionable, and Micah Parsons is still out. In a shootout, the team catching 3.5 with the returning workhorse back and the better number already in hand is the side. Recommendation: Green Bay +3½

LA Rams -3½ over Las Vegas

4:25 PM EST. The Rams are 2-4, and they rank third in the entire NFL in total offense (401.3 yards a game) and third in total defense (294.0 allowed). Matthew Stafford leads the league with 1,794 passing yards, Puka Nacua has 37 catches for 417, and Kyren Williams has 393 rushing yards and four scores plus 30 catches. That is not a 2-4 roster — that's a good team with a losing record walking into a building where the defense gives up 27 points a game. Las Vegas has allowed 45, 30 and 33 in three straight losses, and it cannot run the ball to stay out of trouble: 65 rushing yards against Buffalo, with Ashton Jeanty grinding at 3.2 a carry for the season.

Kirk Cousins (14 TDs, 5 INTs) has to win this with his arm against a top-three defense, because the Raiders' ground game gives him no shelter, while Stafford gets the cleanest runway he's seen in weeks. And your -3.5 is a point better than the prevailing -4.5 at BetMGM and Action Network — you're laying less than the market for the better team, which is the whole game in this business.

Now the reason the market disagrees with me, because it's substantial: the Rams' injury report is a hospital ward. Davante Adams is on IR with a ruptured hamstring, both defensive tackles (Poona Ford, Kobie Turner) are out, Myles Garrett is still on IR, and kicker Blake Grupe tore his ACL — the kicking job is unsettled a week after kicking chaos helped cost them a home loss to Arizona as double-digit favorites. The line has steamed from -7 toward Vegas with 83% of the money, and the Raiders are 5-1 against the spread. All noted, all real. The yardage doesn't lie, though. Recommendartion: L.A. Rams -3½

Seattle -2½ over Kansas City

8:20 PM EST. The undefeated Chiefs are walking into a protection nightmare. Left tackle Josh Simmons was placed on injured reserve Thursday — out, definitively — which leaves rookie undrafted free agent Kahlil Benson guarding Patrick Mahomes' blind side, while right tackle Jaylon Moore sits in the concussion protocol. Rashee Rice (DNP Wednesday) is a game-time call at best, Tyquan Thornton is on IR, and Travis Kelce is limited. Mahomes will be throwing to Xavier Worthy and a prayer, behind backups, in the loudest building in football.

And the defense waiting for him just played its best game of the season: Seattle held Denver to 168 total yards and 74 rushing yards last week. That run defense is the direct answer to Kansas City's engine — Kenneth Walker III, the ex-Seahawk, has 665 yards and six touchdowns in five games — because if Walker doesn't eat, the whole Chiefs offense shrinks to Mahomes improvising behind a third-string line. Seattle also gets ten days to prepare after playing last Thursday, at home, while Kansas City played Sunday and flies cross-country. The market agrees: this opened Seattle -1.5 and has moved to -2.5, with a low 42.5 total that favors the rested home defense.

The confession, and it's a big one: Sam Darnold. Nine interceptions on the season, two more against Denver, the second of which handed the Broncos the winning field goal — Seattle has 10 turnovers in its last four games and has lost three of them by three or fewer. Kansas City is 5-0, just held the Chargers to six points, and Walker would love nothing more than to bury his old team in its own stadium. If Darnold plays Santa Claus, none of the rest matters. But with the tackles gone, the receivers gone and ten days to scheme it up, Seattle's defense is the bet. Recommendation: Seattle -2½

Philadelphia +3½ over Dallas

8:15 PM EST. Jalen Hurts is done for the season — placed on injured reserve Oct. 17 after blood clots were found in his lungs — and Tanner McKee is Philadelphia's quarterback now. So this Monday night pick is not about the Eagles being good. It's about the specific way they can still win this specific game, and it starts with the man expected back in the backfield: Saquon Barkley, out since Week 4 with a hamstring, is reported "in line to play" Monday night — landing directly on a Dallas defense that ranks 31st in the league in EPA per play and gives up rushing yards in chunks. Philadelphia has 57 rushing yards in its last two games combined without him; with him, the whole offense changes shape.

Dallas is in no position to be laying points on the road. The Cowboys have lost two straight while scoring 29 points total across both games, they're 1-3 against the spread as a favorite and 1-2 on the road, and this is their third consecutive primetime game. The market smells it too: Dallas opened -5.5 and has been bet down to -4.5 even with the Hurts news public for a week. Which brings us to your number — your +3.5 is a full point worse than the +4.5 on the board right now. If you haven't bet it, take the 4.5; that's a free point on the exact margin these grinders land on.

The rest of the honesty: Philadelphia's offense is bottom-three in football (17.7 points, 255.5 yards a game), it's lost four straight, it's 0-3 against the number at home, Barkley managed just 182 scoreless yards in four games before he got hurt, and he's running behind a line missing Landon Dickerson and Lane Johnson. McKee went 26-of-45 for 215 and a touchdown last week — serviceable, not special. But primetime at the Linc, a returning Barkley against the league's softest run defense, and a favorite that can't score anymore. Recommendation: Philadelphia +3½