Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland +3 -110 over Pittsburgh 

1:00 PM EST. Every year, the Pittsburgh Steelers somehow manage to convince the football world that they're better than they actually are. It doesn't matter who's coaching, who's playing quarterback, or how unimpressive their victories might be. Pittsburgh wins a few games, the media starts talking about the Steelers' toughness, character, and winning culture, and suddenly everybody is treating them like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Here we are again, with Pittsburgh sitting at 5-2 and Aaron Rodgers apparently having discovered the fountain of youth. After last week's victory over New Orleans in Paris, you'd swear Rodgers belonged on the cover of a Wheaties box. Never mind that Pittsburgh managed just 16 points against the Saints. The Steelers won, Rodgers looked respectable, and the familiar Pittsburgh hype machine is back in business.

But let's examine those five victories a little more closely. Pittsburgh beat Atlanta 20-13 in its opener, a game it had little business winning. The Steelers also squeezed past Cincinnati 30-27 and Tampa Bay 26-19, while their 34-22 victory over Indianapolis was considerably more convincing. Last week's 16-10 win over New Orleans was hardly a masterpiece, either. That's the Pittsburgh experience in a nutshell. Win ugly, benefit from a few fortunate bounces, and let everyone else explain why you're supposedly better than your performances suggest. The Steelers have made an art form out of turning ordinary football into impressive-looking records. At some point, however, smoke and mirrors stop working, and somebody has to pay the magician.

Meanwhile, Cleveland is sitting at the very same 5-2 record, yet nobody seems particularly interested in giving the Browns much credit. All five of their victories have come by four points or fewer, including consecutive wins decided by last-second field goals from Andre Szmyt. The perception is that Cleveland has been living dangerously, while Pittsburgh somehow knows how to win close games because of its superior football culture. Funny how that works. When the Steelers squeak out victories, it's called championship character. When Cleveland does the same thing, it's called getting lucky. We're not buying the distinction. Both teams have found ways to win games that could have gone either way, but only one is receiving the benefit of the doubt from the betting market.

There's also a very convenient narrative making the rounds this week: Cleveland simply isn't going to beat Pittsburgh twice in the same season, especially with this game being played in Pittsburgh. We've heard it a million times already. The Browns haven't won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh since 2003, and the home team has dominated this rivalry for years. That's wonderful information for anyone interested in writing a history book. It has considerably less relevance to what happens Sunday afternoon. The Browns already beat these Steelers 27-24 on October 1, and nothing about that result suggests Pittsburgh possesses some mysterious advantage that suddenly becomes unbeatable when the game moves across the state line. The oddsmakers aren't handing out points because of what happened when Tim Couch was Cleveland's quarterback. We're wagering on the teams playing today, not the ghosts of Steelers past.

And there's another element worth considering that hasn't received nearly enough attention. Pittsburgh is returning home after playing New Orleans in Paris last Sunday. International travel isn't necessarily a death sentence, but crossing the Atlantic, adjusting to the time change, and getting back into a normal preparation routine is hardly ideal. Cleveland, meanwhile, is coming off an encouraging offensive performance against Tennessee in which Deshaun Watson threw for 306 yards, his highest total in years. The Browns have also started getting more production from their running game, and KC Concepcion is becoming an increasingly important part of the offense. Cleveland doesn't need Watson to turn into the quarterback he was six years ago. It simply needs enough offensive production to complement a defense that has already demonstrated it can make Rodgers uncomfortable.

The market is offering three points with a Cleveland team that has the same record as Pittsburgh and already owns a victory over the Steelers this season. Yet the prevailing opinion is that Pittsburgh is the obvious choice because it's playing at home, Rodgers is supposedly rejuvenated, and Cleveland hasn't won there in forever. Those are precisely the arguments that make the Browns attractive. Pittsburgh's reputation continues to command a premium, while Cleveland's narrow victories are treated as evidence of impending regression. The Steelers might win another ugly game, but asking them to cover a field goal against an opponent that has already beaten them is a different proposition altogether. We're not interested in betting on Pittsburgh's mystique, its history, or another weekly celebration of Aaron Rodgers. Give us the team nobody trusts, the points, and an opportunity to expose another edition of the NFL's longest-running smoke-and-mirrors show.

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