Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +113 over N.Y. Giants

8:15 PM EST. Buying low and selling high isn't just something that applies to the stock market. It's the foundation of finding value in sports betting, and tonight's NFC East matchup provides an excellent example. The Giants have suddenly become one of the market's favorite teams, while Washington has become a team nobody wants anything to do with. That's precisely the type of disparity that gets our attention. We're not interested in identifying which team has looked better lately. We're interested in determining whether the market has gone too far in rewarding one and punishing the other.

Consider where the Giants were just two weeks ago. New York was catching 10½ points against Houston. Fast-forward to tonight, and the same team is laying a price against Washington. That's a remarkable shift in perception over a very short period. The Giants have covered two consecutive games and five of their last six, and suddenly everyone wants a piece of them. Their latest victory came in Philadelphia, where they defeated an Eagles team starting an inexperienced quarterback. It was a respectable result, but hardly the type of performance that justifies treating New York like an emerging powerhouse. The Giants' stock is arguably higher now than at any point this season, even before starting quarterback Jaxson Dart went down. 

Washington, meanwhile, couldn't attract a crowd if it were giving away free beer. The Commanders have been an extremely unattractive betting proposition, and their recent performances haven't helped. Against San Francisco in prime time three weeks ago, Washington was thoroughly outplayed before a couple of late touchdowns made the final score considerably more respectable. Last week, the Commanders were getting 4½ points at home against the Rams and failed to cover despite a competitive effort. Even their recent success against Philadelphia came against a badly depleted Eagles team. There hasn't been much for Washington backers to celebrate, and the market has responded accordingly.

That's what makes tonight's price interesting. These teams played to a 27-27 tie in their previous meeting, a game in which Washington rushed for more than 200 yards. Now, with the Giants enjoying all the positive publicity and the Commanders receiving virtually none, the market has installed New York as the favorite. Throw in a short week, limited preparation time and some uncertainty surrounding McCarthy's hip, and this is hardly an ideal situation to be paying a premium for the Giants. Washington doesn't need to suddenly become a great football team to represent value at this number.

The Giants may very well be improving under John Harbaugh, but improvement and betting value are two entirely different things. Anyone who has been riding New York over the past several weeks has enjoyed a terrific run. Congratulations to them. But jumping aboard now, after five covers in six games and a dramatic rise in market perception, is arriving at the party just as the bartender is announcing last call. Washington is the unpopular side, the beaten-down side and, most importantly, the side offering the better price. That's where our money belongs.

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