Posted Friday at 2:30pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 10

November 13

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

New England +2½ over Detroit

9:30 AM EST. The Lions are 6-2 and riding a four-game winning streak, but look at how they are winning: 20-17, 19-15, 19-9, three straight games scoring 20 points or fewer, and the last three wins came by three, four and ten points. Detroit's pass defense allows 260.9 yards a game, the most in the NFL, and the secondary is held together with tape, with Kerby Joseph out and DJ Reed out. Drake Maye does not need a perfect day to move the ball on this defence. He needs a clean pocket and a couple of deep shots, and New England has the receivers to make Detroit pay for every blown coverage.

Maye has already shown he can win a game like this. He authored the only loss on Buffalo's record, 29-26 in Buffalo on October 4, and New England has bounced back with a win after every regular-season loss since last year. The Patriots are not a team that spirals. They take a punch, they adjust, and they come back the next week with a plan. Detroit keeps winning ugly, and ugly wins do not cover spreads.

The Munich setting helps the dog too. Neither team has played at Allianz Arena, the trip is the same for both, and the Patriots flew over on Wednesday to get settled. Detroit is 3-4-1 against the spread, which tells you the market keeps pricing the Lions like the team from the highlight reels and they keep playing like a team that wins by a field goal. Two and a half points in a game Detroit keeps winning by three is a gift. Recommendation: New England +2.5.

N.Y. Jets +7½ over Buffalo

1:00 PM EST. Buffalo is the best team in the AFC and the Bills are going to win this game, probably. But seven and a half points on the road, on a short week, after a Monday night game in Minnesota, against a divisional opponent that has been losing close all year, is too many. The Bills' offensive line is in pieces: left tackle Dion Dawkins and left guard Alec Anderson both missed Monday night and are questionable again, and right tackle Spencer Brown is questionable too. Josh Allen can cover a lot of sins, but he cannot block for himself, and a short week road game is where tired offensive lines get exposed.

The Jets, for all their misery, have been competitive in defeat. Before the Kansas City blowout, their three straight losses came by seven, three and five points, and Geno Smith threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns against Las Vegas in a game the Jets scored on each of their first six possessions and still lost. Breece Hall is back after missing five games, and he had 87 yards from scrimmage last week, which gives this offence its lead back for the first time since early October. A healthy Hall changes the shape of this offense completely.

This is a divisional home game, the Jets are 4-4-1 against the spread, and Buffalo is due a flat spot. The Bills have been winning with defence and ball control, not blowouts, and a 1:00 PM start at MetLife after a Monday night in Minneapolis is exactly the spot where a great team plays down to its opponent. Allen can win it, but covering seven and a half on the road on a short week is a different ask. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets +7.5.

Cleveland +4½ over Houston

1:00 PM EST. The Browns have not lost at home this season, and they are getting four and a half points in their own building against a Houston team that started 0-4. Deshaun Watson cleared concussion protocol and is expected to start against his former team, the same team he beat 27-14 the last time he faced them, and if the week goes sideways, Shedeur Sanders just showed he can move this offense, throwing for 297 yards and two touchdowns at New Orleans last week. Either way, Cleveland has a quarterback who can play, which is more than you could say about this team a month ago.

The rest of the setup is pure Browns football. Houston's two star edge rushers, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, are both questionable, and running back David Montgomery is questionable to doubtful, so the Texans may show up without their best pass rush and their best runner. Anderson has 9.5 sacks this season, and without him and Hunter, Houston's defense loses its teeth. Cleveland's offensive line can breathe, and Watson gets the time he needs to find his receivers downfield.

The total is 39.5 to 40.5 with wind gusting to 14 mph off the lake, which points to a close, low-scoring grind, and Cleveland's defence allows 21.8 points a game, 12th in the league. In a game like this, four and a half points is a lot of cushion. The Browns win at home, the Texans are banged up, and the weather is going to keep this one tight. Recommendation: Cleveland +4.5.

Tennessee +10.5 over Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST. The Titans are 1-7 and the Jaguars are 6-2, and the market has decided this one is over before it starts. But Tennessee just had a bye week, 14 days to prepare, and its last game was its best offensive showing of the season: 36 points and 440 yards at Cincinnati, leading 13-0 early and 36-29 with under four minutes left, covering easily as a 13.5-point dog. The Titans' last three games were decided by seven points in overtime, three points, and a win. They have not lost by more than a touchdown in a month, and they are rested, at home, with two weeks to get ready for a divisional opponent.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, is held together with duct tape: 11 players on injured reserve, including starting right tackle Anton Harrison, and edge rusher Travon Walker, receiver Jakobi Meyers and running back Bhayshul Tuten all questionable, with Tuten not practising all week. The Jaguars have won five of six, but they have been winning with a roster that gets thinner every week, and now they travel on a short week after playing Thursday night. Depth matters in November, and Jacksonville does not have much left.

Tennessee's defence forced four turnovers at Cincinnati, including three interceptions by safety Amani Hooker, and this is a divisional home game against a favourite that has to travel and play its third game in eleven days. Double digits is too much for a team that keeps finding ways to hang around. Recommendation: Tennessee +10.5.

New Orleans -2.5 over Carolina

1:00 PM EST. The Saints just won their first home game of the season, beating Cleveland 23-22 in overtime, and they have won two of their last three. The line has steamed from pick them all the way to New Orleans -2.5, which tells you where the smart money went this week, and the Saints' moneyline has moved from -107 to around -140. When a line moves two and a half points in a week, the market is saying something, and what it is saying is that New Orleans is the better team right now.

The third down numbers back it up. New Orleans converts 43.5 percent on third down, seventh best in the NFL, against a Carolina defence that lets opponents move the chains. Tyler Shough leads this team in both passing and rushing, which makes the Saints' offense hard to game plan for: you stop the pass and he runs, you spy the run and he throws. Carolina converts just 37.7 percent on third down, 19th in the league, which means the Panthers' drives stall and the Saints get the ball back.

Carolina has lost two straight one-score games, and the Panthers are banged up where it hurts: receiver Xavier Legette is questionable coming off injured reserve, guard Damien Lewis is questionable after missing last week, and running back Jonathon Brooks is on injured reserve. The Saints are at home in the dome, playing their best football of the season, against a team that keeps finding ways to lose close ones. Lay the small number. Recommendation: New Orleans -2.5.

Minnesota +2.5 over Green Bay

1:00 PM EST. The Vikings started 6-0 and then the quarterback position fell apart: 31 completions on 61 throws for 312 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions across the two losses, and a Monday night shutout of the end zone at Buffalo. So Minnesota went and fixed it, trading a third-round pick to Las Vegas on Tuesday to bring Kirk Cousins home. Cousins spent six seasons in this system, he knows Kevin O'Connell's offence cold, and he threw 20 touchdown passes in nine games for the Raiders this year. This is a direct upgrade at the one position that sank them, and he does not need a month to learn the playbook. He wrote most of it.

Green Bay, for all its form, is walking into this game without its lead back and its best pass rusher: Josh Jacobs is out after finger surgery and Micah Parsons is out after ACL surgery. The Packers' run game loses its engine and the pass rush loses its closer, and both of those absences matter more against a Minnesota offense that just got its quarterback back. Green Bay won five of six, but it did it with Jacobs and Parsons, and neither one is suiting up on Sunday.

Minnesota's defence allows 14.5 points a game, top ten in the league, and gave up just 42 points combined across the two losses. The Vikings lost those games because the offense could not score, and they just traded for a quarterback who can. At plus money, with the better defence and a quarterback who knows the building, this is the value play of the week. Recommendation: Minnesota +2.5

Miami +4.5 over Indianapolis

1:00 PM ET. The Colts have lost five straight, and it has not been close: 16.4 points scored a game against 29 conceded over that stretch, an average losing margin of 12.6 points, including a 42-7 demolition at Jacksonville. Indianapolis sold at the trade deadline, shipping Josh Downs to Kansas City and Keenan Allen to San Francisco, and has not won since Week 4. The Colts are 1-4 at home this season, and their two home games in this losing streak both ended in single-score defeats, which tells you this team cannot close out games even in its own building.

Miami is 1-7 and nobody is pretending otherwise, but the Dolphins' only win came on the road, 28-25 at the Jets, they covered 6.5 against New England, and they held Detroit to 19 points last week. The Dolphins compete. They do not win often, but they hang around, and hanging around is all you need when you are getting four and a half points against a team that loses by nearly two touchdowns a game.

Rookie Kyle McCord makes his first career start at quarterback, a fresh arm with no tape for Indianapolis to study, and he walks into a game against a team that has quit on the season in every way that matters. The Colts traded away two of their best receivers at the deadline. They are playing out the string. Miami is playing for pride, and pride covers spreads.Recommendation: Miami +4.5.

Atlanta +3.5 over Kansas City

1:00 PM EST. The Falcons are 3-6 and the Chiefs are 6-2, but Atlanta has already beaten good teams this season: 29-20 over the 49ers at home, forcing four turnovers and handing San Francisco its first loss, 35-14 at Green Bay, 45-24 at New Orleans. This team plays up to its competition, and the Falcons are at home in their own building against a Kansas City team that has not looked like itself for a month. The record says blowout. The results say otherwise.

Bijan Robinson is the reason why. He has 880 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 169 carries, 97.8 yards a game, plus 31 catches for 250 yards and a score, and he ran for 100 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries against Cincinnati last week. When Atlanta wins, it wins on the ground, controlling the clock and keeping the other offence on the sideline. Kansas City's defense has been good, but it has not faced a back like Bijan in weeks.

The Chiefs lost two of three before the Jets game, including a 20-3 loss at Seattle, and Patrick Mahomes is questionable with an elbow injury, banged up even if he plays. The line has moved from Kansas City -4.5 to -3.5, money coming in on Atlanta all week, and the Falcons are catching a quarterback who is not a hundred percent. Recommendation: Atlanta +3.5.

Las Vegas +6.5 over Seattle

4:05 PM EST. Seattle is laying nearly a touchdown on the road with a backup quarterback who is himself hurt. Sam Darnold is out with a quad injury and a cracked rib, and Drew Lock, the man replacing him, is questionable with an oblique injury and elbow tendinitis. Behind them, the offensive line is patched together: starting left tackle Charles Cross is doubtful and the new guard is out after a knee procedure. That is a lot to ask of a road favourite, and it is a lot to ask of a quarterback who was already the backup before he got hurt himself.

Las Vegas is 6-3 against the spread this season and 4-1 against the number in its last five, and the Raiders are starting rookie Fernando Mendoza at quarterback, which means Seattle's defense has no NFL film to study. Mendoza is a blank slate, and blank slates are dangerous for a defence that has spent all week preparing for a quarterback it has never seen. The Raiders are at home, in a dome, with nothing to lose, and Seattle has been a favourite in all nine of its games this season, which means the market has been overpricing the Seahawks all year.

The total has dropped from 43.5 to 40.5, which tells you the market expects a low-scoring grind, and in a low-scoring grind, six and a half points at home is a mountain. Seattle is 3-4-2 against the spread, the Raiders cover, and the points are the play. Recommendation: Las Vegas +6.5.

L.A. Rams -9.5 over Arizona

4:05 PM EST. Arizona is down to its third-string quarterback, rookie Carson Beck, making his first NFL start, and the Cardinals scored three points last week at Seattle. Three. James Conner is on injured reserve, the receiving corps is thinned out, and now a rookie is being asked to run the show against a Rams defence that allows 20.1 points a game, eighth best in the league. This is not a fair fight, and the market knows it.

The mismatch is on both sides of the ball. Arizona's offense ranks 26th in scoring at 19.8 points a game and the defence ranks 31st in points allowed at 28.3, which is a combination that gets you blown out at home. The Rams' defence gives up just 312.9 yards a game, and the Rams' offense does not need to be spectacular to win this game by two touchdowns. It needs to be competent, and competent is the floor for this team.

The Rams have won three straight, including a 20-13 win over Washington and a 24-9 win at the Chargers, and they have covered in ten of their last eleven visits to Arizona. This is a professional football team against a team that is already thinking about the draft. Lay the points. Recommendation: L.A. Rams -9.5.

Dallas +4½ over San Francisco

4:25 PM EST. The 49ers are 7-1 and the best team in the NFC on paper, but look at the wide receiver room: Brandon Aiyuk is out, Christian Kirk is on injured reserve, Mike Evans is doubtful with an Achilles injury, Deebo Samuel is questionable with a hamstring, and Ricky Pearsall and Demarcus Robinson are both on injured reserve. San Francisco is going to throw the ball to whoever is left standing, and that is not a recipe for covering a spread on the road against a team that can score.

Dallas scores 27.3 points a game, sixth best in the league, throwing for 256.9 yards a game, and the Cowboys' offense is built to take advantage of exactly this situation. San Francisco's defence will be on the field a lot with the offence short-handed, and tired defences give up points in the fourth quarter. Dallas has the quarterback, the receivers and the home crowd to make this a shootout, and shootouts favour the dog at plus money.

The 49ers' only loss this season came on the road, 29-20 at Atlanta, and they are just 1-1 away from home. Dallas just won on the road at Indianapolis, 27-23, and now comes home to AT&T Stadium against a team missing its entire receiving corps. At plus money, with the better quarterback situation and the home crowd, this is a live dog. Recommendation: Dallas +4½

Cincinnati -3½ over Pittsburgh

8:20 PM EST. Joe Burrow is playing the best football of his career, and it is not close. Twenty-three touchdown passes this season, and over the four-game winning streak he is averaging 303.7 passing yards a game with 16 touchdowns against three interceptions at a 77 percent completion rate. In Madrid last week he went 24 of 29 for 271 yards and three touchdowns, plus a rushing score, and he did it against a Falcons team that had just beaten San Francisco. Burrow is in the zone, and the zone does not care about the opponent.

The Bengals have scored 240 points, the most in the AFC, and they have put up 30 or more in four straight games for the first time in the franchise's 59-season history. The offense is converting 28 of 44 third downs during the streak, which means drives do not stall, the defense stays fresh, and the scoreboard keeps moving. This is the best offence in the conference right now, and it is not a debate.

Pittsburgh is 6-2 and coming off a bye, but the Steelers average just 17.3 points a game on the road against 27.8 at home, and DK Metcalf has 33 catches for 378 yards and one touchdown on 65 targets, which is not the production of a number one receiver. The winner takes sole possession of first place in the AFC North, and Cincinnati is the hotter team, at home, in prime time, with the better quarterback. Recommendation: Cincinnati -3.5.

Baltimore -4½ over L.A. Chargers

8:15 PM EST. The Chargers are 0-8. They are 0-7-1 against the spread, they have not covered a game all season, they own the worst point differential in football at minus 98, they rank last in scoring at 15.1 points a game, and Justin Herbert has thrown six touchdowns against eleven interceptions and is questionable for Monday night. That is what moved the total from 48.5 all the way down to 38.5 and pushed this spread out to four and a half. The market is telling you the Chargers might not have a quarterback, and a team without a quarterback does not win on Monday night in Baltimore.

Baltimore, meanwhile, finally has one. The Ravens traded for Jacoby Brissett at the deadline, and he starts Monday night, the fourth starting quarterback of Baltimore's season but the first one with real NFL experience since Lamar Jackson went down. Derrick Henry has 689 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, Zay Flowers has 614 receiving yards, and the Ravens finally have a veteran under centre who can get them the ball. Brissett does not need to be great. He needs to be competent, and competent is a massive upgrade over what Baltimore has been running out there.

The Ravens are at home on Monday night against a winless team with its quarterback in doubt, and the Chargers' defence allows 27.4 points a game, 28th in the league. Baltimore's offence has been modest, but modest is enough against a team that cannot score and cannot stop anybody. Recommendation: Baltimore -4½