Posted at 1:30 PM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit - 1½ +130 over San Jose

7:00PM EST Detroit’s situational edge creates value at +130 — The Red Wings come into this game as the home favorite against the Sharks, and while the spread isn’t “chalk,” it represents real value when you dig into the context. Detroit sits comfortably above .500 and has been strong in one-goal decisions, showing it can extend leads and close out close games at Little Caesars Arena. San Jose’s road win streak is noteworthy, but Detroit’s depth and recent adjustments suggest the Red Wings are more likely to control the game tempo and gap the spread by a couple of goals.

Schedule and travel trends tilt toward Detroit — San Jose is on the tail end of a road stretch and doesn’t enjoy the same rest advantage as Detroit, which has been home for its last few games. Road trips in the NHL wear on lesser defences, and the Sharks have allowed more goals than they’ve scored on the road this season — a trend that doesn’t favor covering a -1.5 goal spread away from home. Detroit’s comfort at home, paired with a lineup that hasn’t shown signs of fatigue, gives this spread a situational edge that the early market may be underpricing.

Line pricing undervalues Detroit’s capacity to get two goals — At +130, Detroit isn’t expensive — it’s priced as a dog with expectation of covering that extra goal cushion. But when you consider San Jose’s defensive inconsistencies and the fact that Detroit has previously beaten this opponent and holds home ice leverage, the number creeps into +EV territory.The  value lines coincide with situational edges tonight for The Red Wings   — making Detroit -1.5 +130 a sharp angle for bettors today.

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