Posted at 11:30AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Calgary +125 over Washington

9:00PM EST. The Capitals’ recent results tell a very different story than their season-long record, as they’ve struggled to string together wins and have leaned heavily on narrow margins. Oddsmakers continue to install Washington as a road favorite based on reputation and early-season success, but their current form doesn’t justify that kind of confidence. When a team is winning fewer games while still being priced aggressively, it opens the door for a home underdog to carry real betting value

From a matchup standpoint, Calgary is better positioned than the market suggests. While the Flames’ offense has been inconsistent, their special teams and defensive structure have quietly improved, especially on the penalty kill. Playing at home allows Calgary to control matchups more effectively and manage pace, which is critical against a Capitals team that relies on veteran scoring rather than speed. Washington has allowed a high volume of shots recently, and if Calgary can generate sustained zone time, they don’t need a high-scoring performance to stay competitive — they just need to capitalize on a few key chances.

The value in backing Calgary comes down to price versus probability. At plus money, the Flames don’t need to dominate — they simply need to win a game that profiles closer to a coin flip than the odds imply. Washington’s road swing adds fatigue and variability, while Calgary’s urgency at home raises their baseline effort level. When a home team with defensive upside and improving structure is catching value against a favorite trending in the wrong direction, the underdog becomes the sharper side. Calgary to win isn’t about ignoring the Capitals’ strengths — it’s about recognizing when the line has drifted too far from current reality.

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