Posted at 10 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Columbus +105 over Tampa Bay

7:00PM EST Columbus becomes a value play in this matchup precisely because the standings create a misleading gap between perception and reality. Tampa Bay is still viewed as a dominant force, but recent performances suggest they’ve shifted into a more controlled, lower-event style that keeps games closer than expected. The Lightning needed a shootout to escape Chicago in their last outing, while Columbus just shut out a strong Dallas team at home, showing their defensive structure can hold up against elite opponents. When a home underdog is playing disciplined hockey and limiting high-danger chances, the price starts to matter more than the logo on the jersey.

From a matchup standpoint, Columbus is better equipped for this game than public narratives suggest. The Blue Jackets have quietly tightened up defensively, allowing fewer than three goals per game over their last ten while playing at a slower, more deliberate pace. That style naturally neutralizes teams that rely on sustained offensive pressure and power-play efficiency. Tampa Bay still has elite top-end talent, but they aren’t blowing teams out consistently, and when games stay close, home ice and goaltending variance become major factors. Columbus doesn’t need to outshoot Tampa Bay — they just need to keep the game within reach and capitalize on limited chances.

The value in backing Columbus lies in probability versus price. With the market pricing this game close to a coin flip, the underdog designation feels more like a reputation-based adjustment than a true reflection of current form. Columbus has earned points in seven of its last ten games and has shown it can grind out low-scoring wins, which directly counters Tampa Bay’s recent trend. At home, with defensive confidence and nothing to lose, Columbus is in a strong position to outperform expectations. Taking the Blue Jackets to win isn’t about predicting dominance — it’s about trusting the value in a matchup that profiles far closer than the standings imply.

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