Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Montreal +110 over Buffalo

7:00PM EST Montreal comes into this matchup priced as the underdog despite profiles that suggest this game is far closer than the market implies. While Buffalo has been winning games recently, that success has pushed their price upward, creating value on a Canadiens team that has quietly been one of the most profitable sides in the league overall. Montreal has consistently exceeded expectations, particularly away from home, where they’ve shown an ability to stay structured, limit mistakes, and capitalize on tight margins. When oddsmakers lean heavily on short-term streaks, disciplined road teams like Montreal often present an opportunity to buy low, especially in divisional matchups where familiarity reduces variance.

From a matchup standpoint, Montreal is well-equipped to handle Buffalo’s strengths. The Canadiens generate offense efficiently without relying on high-volume shooting, and they’ve been effective at converting chances at even strength. Defensively, they’ve shown a willingness to collapse, protect the slot, and force opponents to finish from lower-danger areas — a style that plays well against a Sabres team that has leaned toward lower-scoring, grind-it-out games for much of the season. Montreal’s ability to keep games tight increases the importance of goaltending and special teams, where the gap between these two clubs is far smaller than public perception suggests.

The value ultimately lies in price versus probability. Buffalo has struggled historically when cast as a home favorite, particularly against opponents that don’t panic when trailing or playing in hostile environments. Montreal, on the other hand, has proven time and again that they can win outright as underdogs by staying patient and letting opponents make mistakes. In a matchup where goals are likely to come at a premium and one bounce can decide the outcome, backing the plus-priced side offers the better long-term edge. Montreal to win outright provides value based on consistency, situational strength, and market inflation on Buffalo, making the Canadiens the preferred play tonight.

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