Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh +105 over Buffalo

7:00 PM EST Pittsburgh heads into this matchup in a sneaky-good situational spot that the market doesn’t fully reward. With the Olympic break looming, this game has a “leave it all out there” feel for a Penguins team that has been sharp away from home for weeks. They’ve quietly collected points in five straight road games and have turned into a confident, structured group when traveling, playing tighter defensively and managing games better than they did earlier in the season. While Buffalo’s overall record since Thanksgiving is excellent, that dominance has already been priced into the line. From a value perspective, Pittsburgh isn’t being respected enough for how well they’ve handled similar road spots against playoff-caliber teams.

Buffalo is still dangerous, especially at home, but the Sabres have shown signs of leveling off. They’re no longer blowing teams out regularly and have been dragged into tighter games where execution late matters. Their recent stretch includes overtime losses and narrow wins rather than sustained control, and that matters against a Penguins team that thrives in close contests. Pittsburgh’s special teams are a major separator here: their power play has been lethal, and their penalty kill has been reliable against high-end offenses. Sidney Crosby continues to drive play, but what really adds value is Pittsburgh’s depth scoring and defensive discipline, which allows them to stay competitive even when the game tilts toward Buffalo’s pace.

The betting value comes from perception versus probability. Buffalo is being treated like the safer side because of home ice and season-long metrics, but Pittsburgh’s recent road form, combined with their strong performance as an underdog, makes them far more live than the odds suggest. The Penguins don’t need to dominate puck possession to win — they’ve been efficient, opportunistic, and composed late in games, especially after overtime losses like their last outing. With Buffalo slightly overpriced due to its long-term surge, Pittsburgh to win stands out as a value play based on current form, matchup dynamics, and the urgency of heading into a long break on a high note.

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