Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

N.Y. Rangers -½ +125 over Toronto

7:05 PM EST. Regulation only. We are once again fading the Toronto Maple Leafs, and until further notice that strategy will remain in place. Toronto is coming off another loss last night in New Jersey in a game that perfectly summarizes where this team currently sits. The Leafs were completely dominated for 65 minutes. They were outshot 47–27, spent most of the night trapped in their own end, and were chasing the puck like a beer league team trying to kill a five-minute major. Somehow, despite being badly outplayed, Toronto stumbled into a 3–2 lead with under four minutes left, only to do what the Leafs do best — blow it. New Jersey tied it late and finished them off in overtime. So not only were the Leafs thoroughly outplayed, they managed to waste the one gift the hockey gods handed them.

This team is in complete disarray. Toronto has now lost five straight games and 11 of their last 14, and many of those losses weren’t close. Since returning from the Olympic break on February 25th the Leafs are 0-5, allowing a truckload of scoring chances, high-danger chances, and ranking dead last in the entire NHL in offensive-zone puck possession time. Think about that for a second. A team loaded with offensive talent is spending less time in the offensive zone than anyone in the league. That’s not a slump — that’s a structural collapse. To make matters worse, the Leafs now hit the ice for their third game in four nights and the tail end of a back-to-back, having already played Monday against Philadelphia and last night in New Jersey. Since the break they’ve played more games than any team in the league, and they look exactly like what they are right now: exhausted, frustrated, and completely disconnected.

Now let’s talk about the Rangers. Are they a great team? Not exactly. In fact, the Rangers’ stock might be as low as any team in hockey right now, with just three wins in their last 21 games, including a lovely 10–2 demolition at the hands of Boston. That said, there are signs of life. Since the break the Rangers have picked up points in all three games, each going to overtime. They lost to Philadelphia 3–2, beat Pittsburgh 3–2, and dropped a 5–4 decision to Columbus. Many of those 18 losses were decided by one goal, meaning they’ve been far more competitive than their overall record suggests. Meanwhile, while Toronto is skating on fumes playing its sixth game in nine days, the Rangers are rested and only playing their fourth game since the break.

This sets up nicely for New York. The Leafs right now look like a team that’s running on empty and wondering which fire to put out first. The Rangers, while flawed, are rested and starting to show signs that they’re not quite ready to fold up the tent just yet. The Leafs are leaking chances, losing possession battles, and playing like a group that just wants this week to end. And until Toronto proves otherwise, the betting strategy is simple: fade the Maple Leafs.

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