Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Vegas -½ +150 over Vegas

NHL Finals Game 3

Series Tied 1-1

8:00 PM EST. Regulation only. Through two games of this series, we remain completely baffled by the market's opinion of these teams. Carolina was laying -150 and -160 at home, yet Vegas could very easily be sitting on a 2-0 series lead right now. The Golden Knights have not been outclassed. They have not been chasing the game. They have traded punches with Carolina every step of the way and, in our view, have been every bit as dangerous. Now the series shifts to Las Vegas and suddenly the game is priced as essentially a pick'em. That makes absolutely no sense to us.

Game 2 only reinforced our opinion. Vegas appeared to have scored what should have been a pivotal goal before a highly controversial review changed the complexion of the game. The goalie interference ruling remains difficult to understand, and the situation became even worse when the failed challenge resulted in a penalty that Carolina converted on. Despite all of that, Vegas still battled back and remained right there until the finish. The final result doesn't change the fact that the Golden Knights have consistently shown they belong on the same level as the Hurricanes and any mention of goalie interference is absolutely fucking preposterous. The refs and the league know they fucked up, so don't be surprised to see Vegas get some favorable calls tonight despite not needing favoravble calls to beat this club. 

What continues to get overlooked is the overall makeup of these rosters. Carolina is a very good team with strong possession numbers and a structured approach, but Vegas rolls four dangerous lines and can generate offense from everywhere in the lineup. The Golden Knights have more finishing ability, more scoring depth, and what we still believe is the more reliable goaltending situation. Frederik Andersen has had his moments, but he's also shown vulnerability when facing a team capable of capitalizing on mistakes. Vegas has repeatedly created those opportunities throughout this series.

At this point, we're not even trying to predict outcomes. Hockey is far too volatile for that. What we're looking at is price, and the price continues to be wrong. The market keeps treating Carolina as though it's clearly the superior team, while everything we've watched suggests these teams are extremely close. Now Vegas gets home ice and we're still being offered a big plus price in regulation. That's a gift we're willing to accept. The Golden Knights have been undervalued from the opening puck drop of this series, and we're backing them again. 

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