Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota +115 over Edmonton

9:00 PM EST. Edmonton's ninth straight game in a different city ends tonight at Rogers Place — a run that took the Oilers through Vancouver twice, Seattle, Anaheim, San Jose, Los Angeles and Utah twice. The Oilers are 6-1-1 and the market has installed them as the home favorite, but look at how the record is built. At 5-on-5, Edmonton has scored 25 goals on a 49.34% expected goals share, with a high-danger shooting percentage of 37.84%. Teams do not shoot 37.84% on high-danger chances forever — not even teams with Connor McDavid, who already has 23 points.

Minnesota is the wrong opponent for a team living on finishing. The Wild pair a 53.42% expected goals share with an 89.13% high-danger save percentage, and Jesper Wallstedt (6-1-1, 1.99 goals against, .921 save percentage) is expected in net, with Edmonton's Devon Levi (.898) at the other end. And this matchup has been a house of horrors for the Oilers: Minnesota won all three meetings last season, including both games in Edmonton — 7-3 and 1-0, both with Wallstedt in net — and has taken 14 of the last 18 head-to-head.

The Wild are banged up — Spurgeon, Faber, both Folignos and Gustavsson are all out — and that, plus McDavid, is why Edmonton is favored. But Minnesota's process has survived the injuries, Kaprizov leads the league with 10 goals, and the edge in net belongs to the team getting plus money. A home team on its ninth straight different city, running on unsustainable finishing, against the club that has owned it for years? We'll take the price. 

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