Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit +130 over Vegas

7:00 PM EST. Start with the schedule, because it's doing heavy lifting here. Both teams are playing their third game in four nights, but only one of them has been living out of a suitcase to do it: Vegas lost a shootout in Boston on Monday, won in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, and now drags itself into Detroit for the third stop of an eastern swing. The Red Wings played the same Monday-Tuesday pair in Florida — a 5-3 win over the Panthers, then a 4-2 loss in Tampa — but they got to sleep in their own beds last night and they get the last change in their own barn. Detroit is also quietly in form, 6-2-2 over its last 10, and its scoring doesn't live or die with one line: Alex DeBrincat and Lucas Raymond sit at 16 points apiece, Viktor Arvidsson leads the team with eight goals, and rookie Emmitt Finnie has seven. Against a Vegas team save percentage of .888 — sub-.900 goaltending, whichever of Carter Hart or Adin Hill gets the net — that balanced attack gets its chances, and Detroit's 23.6% power play gets to work on a Vegas penalty kill running at just 73.9%, 22nd in the league.

Then there's the crease, where an injury may have done Detroit a favour. John Gibson — 4-5 with an .860 save percentage and a 3.46 goals-against — left Tuesday's game in Tampa after one period, the Wings recalled Michal Postava on Wednesday to replace him, and that pushes Daniil Tarasov into the starter's chair. All Tarasov has done is post a 1.74 goals-against average and a .927 save percentage, win in Florida on Monday, and then stop 12 of 13 in relief in Tampa. He is, by a mile, the best goaltending Detroit has gotten this season, and tonight he gets it at home against a road team on fumes.

If Detroit parades to the box, none of the scheduling talk matters. But discipline at home, the better goalie on current form, and a tired favourite at the end of a road swing is a real recipe and at plus money at home, it doesn't need to work every night. It just needs to work tonight.

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