Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Edmonton -1½ +122 over Philadelphia

9:00 PM EST. Edmonton is a different hockey team than the one that used to need six goals to win a game, and it starts behind the bench. Under Mike Babcock the Oilers have turned into a team that strangles games instead of trading chances, and the last seven say it plainly. They have allowed thirteen goals in seven games, with back-to-back shutouts to close out October, a 4-0 blanking of Calgary and another 4-0 shutout in New York, and they have held the other team to two goals or fewer in five of those seven. They have won five of the seven, and the two they lost were a shootout in New Jersey and a one-goal game against Anaheim. This is a team that can win 3-1 and go home happy, and that is a problem for a Philadelphia team that does not score enough to crack a defense playing like this.

Philadelphia arrives in Edmonton at the end of the road in every sense. The Flyers close out their Western Canada swing tonight, the third stop in four days after Calgary on Sunday and Vancouver on Monday, and they are running on fumes in the third city of a trip that has already taken its toll. The even-strength numbers back up what the eye test says. Philadelphia sits near the bottom of the league at five-on-five, 28th in shot-attempt share and 29th in expected goals, 28th in scoring-chance share and 27th in high-danger chance share, while Edmonton sits ahead of them on every one of those measures and ranks 18th in offensive-zone time against Philadelphia's 31st. Philadelphia's one win on the trip came against a Vancouver team that has won three games all season, and even that took everything they had. Now they get the best team in the West, at home, and not giving anything away.

The price is the thing. Edmonton on the moneyline is a minus number nobody wants to lay, but the puck line is sitting at plus money, and that is the whole play. We need Edmonton to win by two, and that is part of the bet, not a footnote. Edmonton has won by two or more in each of their last five wins, and with the way this team defends now, a two-goal lead in the third period is a lead they protect, and a one-goal lead late is an empty-net goal waiting to happen. Philadelphia is walking into a building where the home team has won five of seven and is not giving up goals, and we are getting a plus price to lay the goal and a half.

Sportsinteraction