Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +135 over New Jersey

7:00 PM EST. This is a price bet built on one glaring weakness in a very good team. New Jersey is 13-6 with 26 points and the second most shots in the league, and the Devils just blanked Toronto 4-0, but their penalty kill is a disaster, running at 67.6 percent, near the bottom of the NHL. Washington's power play converts at 20 percent, and in a game where the Capitals only need a couple of man advantage chances to swing it, that matchup is the whole handicap. New Jersey will spend the night taking penalties in its own zone if Washington's forecheck does its job, and every whistle is a lottery ticket for the road team.

Washington is also a better even strength team than the record suggests, with 45 goals for and 39 against at five on five, and the attack runs through Alex Tuch, who has 11 goals already, and Dylan Strome, who leads the team with 15 points. The Capitals do not need to win a shootout. They need to stay even at five on five, draw their penalties, and let the special teams math do the rest. In goal, Logan Thompson brings a career line that holds up anywhere: 124 wins against 63 losses, a 2.63 goals against average, a .910 save percentage and 128 quality starts in 206 starts. He does not need to steal this game. He just needs to be steady while New Jersey's penalty kill does the damage for him.

And the shot volume New Jersey brags about is not as scary as it looks: the Devils fire the second most pucks in the league but convert just 10.7 percent of them, which means a lot of noise from the perimeter and a lot of easy nights for a goalie who tracks the puck the way Thompson does. Washington has been here before, a road underdog with the better netminder and the one matchup that matters, and the Capitals have the veteran spine to drag this game into the third period tied and then let the power play decide it. At plus money, this is a gift.

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