Bookmaker   -105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Chicago -105 over Toronto

Rogers Centre – Toronto, ON

3:07 PM ET. We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again — legacy doesn’t win ballgames, performance does. That brings us to Max Scherzer, who still carries a premium price despite no longer being the guy he once was. This line is inflated because of the name on the mound, not the numbers behind it. That’s where the value lies.

Scherzer’s profile doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. A 4.21 ERA paired with a 4.62 FIP and a sinking strikeout rate is the stuff of mediocrity, not dominance. His groundball rate is just 24%, which means hitters are elevating, and this Chicago lineup is built to punish mistakes in the air. They’ve got thump from top to bottom, and Rogers Centre isn’t exactly a pitcher’s park.

On the flip side, Matthew Boyd is the better arm right now, full stop. He owns an 11-5 mark with a 2.45 ERA and a sparkling 3.13 FIP — the kind of profile that wins games and suppresses damage. He’s not just getting results, he’s earning them. Boyd’s also backed by a team playing with purpose, and that counts too.

This isn’t about fading the Blue Jays — it’s about fading an overpriced relic and siding with the better pitcher at the better number. The Cubbies are the play.

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