Bookmaker   +160

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Colorado +160 over Arizona

Coors Field – Denver, CO

8:40 PM ET. This is one of those games the market doesn’t want. You won’t see anyone at the window asking for the Rockies. You won’t hear a single analyst singing their praises. The narratives are all one-sided — Colorado is trash, Arizona is fighting for the playoffs, and Brandon Pfaadt is somehow “figuring it out.” That’s nonsense, and we’re buying the team nobody wants.

Let’s break it down. Pfaadt has 12 wins. Great. He also carries a 5.05 ERA and a bloated 5.95 xERA. His Hard Hit rate is 40%. That’s not progress — that’s a guy skating on thin ice and getting bailed out by run support and a few lucky bounces. If you’re laying this kind of price with a starter like that at Coors Field, you’re not just paying a tax — you’re throwing money into the wind.

Tanner Gordon and the Rockies are the punchline to every baseball joke this year, but Gordon’s numbers are screaming positive regression. A .407 BABIP and 50% strand rate have destroyed his surface-level ERA, but his xERA is lower than Pfaadt’s. His underlying metrics — Hard Hit %, SIERA — are the same. This isn’t David vs. Goliath. This is two very flawed pitchers throwing in the highest-variance environment in the league.

Arizona’s bullpen is also leaking oil, ranking among the worst in baseball with a 4.74 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. If this one turns into a track meet, we want the side that cashes big on every swing. The Snakes might look like the sharp play, but this isn’t sharp — it’s square as it gets.

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