Bookmaker   +3 -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

St. Louis+125 over New York Yankees

Busch Stadium – St. Louis, M

7:15 PM ET. This is priced like a coin flip, but it isn’t. In fact, it leans our way — toward the Birds on the Bat. Max Fried is the name brand here. He’s been a steadying presence atop the Yankees’ rotation, and the surface numbers look like a Cy Young case: 12-5 with a 2.94 ERA. His reputation is built in.

Sonny Gray, meanwhile, doesn’t have the optics on his side. A 4.06 ERA isn’t going to drive action. He’s 11-5 and rarely in the conversation when people start talking about the elite arms in the game. But the metrics reveal a different truth.

Under the hood:

Strikeouts per nine: Gray 9.84, Fried 8.44

Walks per nine: Gray 1.45, Fried 2.25

BABIP/Strand Rate: Gray’s .323 BABIP and 69% strand rate suggest misfortune; Fried’s .276 and 72% show he’s gotten a few more breaks.

FIP: Gray 3.11, Fried 3.17

xERA and SIERA: Nearly dead even in xERA (Gray 3.68 to Fried’s 3.65), but SIERA shows a stark difference — Gray at an elite 3.13 to Fried’s middling 3.65.

What you’re seeing on the scoreboard isn’t the full story. Fried has benefitted from sequencing and defense. Gray hasn’t. The edge in actual “pitching performance” might very well belong to the guy with the higher ERA.

That’s not all. The Cardinals bullpen is stronger — that’s not up for debate — and the offense has been living in the “dangerous” zone for weeks now. This isn’t a team to gift extra baserunners or fall behind against. The Redbirds can work a count and pounce on mistakes, which is bad news for a staff whose margin for error shrinks late.

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