Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tampa Bay +105 over San Francisco

Oracle Park, San Francisco

9:05 PM ET. We’re fading Justin Verlander. Full stop.

The name still carries weight. The resume is Hall of Fame worthy. But the 2025 version of Justin Verlander is running on fumes. He’s 1-9 with a 4.53 ERA, and the Giants have lost 15 of his 20 starts. He’s not getting support, but he’s also not missing bats. The velocity is down, the location is inconsistent, and his pitches are catching too much of the plate. Now he’s priced as the favorite — because he’s Justin Verlander. That’s our cue.

The Giants are falling apart defensively. They’re already without Matt Chapman, and now they’re likely down Casey Schmitt as well. That leaves Christian Koss and Tyler Fitzgerald manning the infield hot corners. That’s not exactly ideal against a Tampa Bay team that still grinds out at-bats and puts balls in play.

The Rays don’t have the star power of years past, but they still bring a clean, aggressive brand of baseball to the yard. They’re well-coached. They’re opportunistic. They put pressure on defenses — and right now, this Giants defense is duct-taped together.

Nick Fortes has been a spark since arriving from Miami. Adrian Houser has found his groove too. He’s allowed just four earned runs over his last three starts and already shut out these same Giants in June. Houser doesn’t overpower hitters, but he keeps the ball on the ground and limits damage — which is all you can ask when backing a dog on the road.

San Francisco had the bases loaded in the eighth last night and didn’t score. That’s who they are right now. They’re pressing, they’re depleted, and they’re trusting a 42-year-old with a 1-9 record to get them off a six-game skid.

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