Bookmaker   +115

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Baltimore +115 over Houston

Dalkin Park – Houston, TX

2:10 PM ET. It’s the same story every year — the Astros get priced like royalty no matter who’s pitching or who they’re playing. They’re always the “safe” side in the eyes of the market. That’s how value gets created, and that’s what we have here.

Houston’s got Cristian Javier on the bump, and he’s coming off a tidy line — 3.60 ERA through one start, no losses, no visible flaws. Except it’s all smoke. A .183 BABIP and 83% strand rate says everything went right for him, and even with that luck, his FIP still ballooned to 4.91. That’s not sustainable — it’s begging to get exposed, and the Orioles are live to do it.

Baltimore has quietly fought their way back from the basement. At one point, they were 17 games under .500 and written off. Now? They’re not making noise in the standings, but they’re winning games. Dean Kremer gives them a legit shot here. His 4.17 ERA doesn’t impress, but his xERA (3.92), BABIP (.295), and LOB% (72%) are clean and stable. He’s not skating by on luck. He’s pitching.

Kremer also limits walks and keeps the ball on the ground more often than Javier. If we’re grading this strictly on skill, there’s no edge to Houston — it’s a coin flip, yet we’re being offered a sweet price on the dog

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v