Bookmaker   -1½ +140

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Francisco -1½ +140 over Tampa Bay

Oracle Park – San Francisco, CA

4:05 PM ET. You want a classic buy-low/sell-high spot? Here it is. Logan Webb has looked rough lately — one quality start in five, tagged by middling lineups, and carrying a “meh” win-loss record. But that’s exactly why we’re targeting him.

Webb’s been sabotaged by a brutal .347 BABIP — the worst among qualified starters — and still has a 3.34 ERA. Imagine what it would look like with even neutral variance. His FIP (2.62) and WAR (4.0) say he’s still shoving, and his 53% ground-ball rate remains elite. The damage done to him came from contenders — the Padres, Mets, and Blue Jays. Tampa doesn’t belong in that company.

Meanwhile, Ryan Pepiot has enjoyed the opposite story. His 3.86 ERA and recent wins against Oakland and the Angels have the market giving him more respect than he deserves. The truth? Pepiot’s xFIP is 4.69, his GB% is 39%, and his WAR is a pedestrian 1.2. He’s not bad — but he’s not good either, and certainly not worthy of shortening a price against a starter as talented as Webb.

Optics are driving this line — not reality. Webb's stat line looks shaky. Pepiot’s looks clean. But under the hood, it's no contest. Webb dominates every meaningful metric, and the Rays are a team ripe for a letdown after a coast-to-coast trip.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v