Bookmaker    +110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Texas +110 over Kansas City

Kauffman Stadium – Kansas City, MO

7:40 PM ET. This is what happens when the market buys the narrative. Kansas City is hot — five wins in six, climbing past Texas in the standings — while the Rangers have dropped eight of ten and are presumed dead in the water.

That perception fuels this price, but it doesn’t hold up. Texas is still the better team. They’ve faced a gauntlet lately — Toronto, Philadelphia, New York, and Arizona — and the losses came close. Six of the last eight defeats were by two runs or fewer. KC’s run came against Chicago and Washington, two non-contenders going through the motions.

The underlying numbers tell a different story: Texas scores more runs and allows fewer. Their expected record is 68-57, not 62-63. If things had broken the way they should have, this line wouldn’t exist.

Two weeks ago, Texas would’ve been road chalk here. Instead, we’re catching a plus price on the superior squad simply because the scoreboard’s tilted against them lately. That’s a classic buy-low, sell-high setup.

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