Bookmaker    +125

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

LA Angels -1½ +160 over Cincinnati

Angel Stadium – Anaheim, CA

Pittsburgh +125 over Toronto

PNC Park – Pittsburgh, PA

6:40 PM ET. This one’s another example of legacy and laundry. The Jays just lost to the Pirates yesterday, but the market will brush that off—Paul Skenes pitched. Strip that context away and what we’re left with is a team sitting 20 games under .500, 2-7 in its last nine, hosting a Jays squad that’s 20 games over and chasing the AL’s best record. Toronto looks automatic—especially with Max Scherzer on the mound.

However, Scherzer’s name is doing the heavy lifting here. His 3-2 record and 3.83 ERA look fine, but the peripherals don’t. His 4.62 FIP and 25% ground-ball rate scream regression. Compare that to Mitch Keller, who gets buried under Pittsburgh’s low profile but owns a 3.66 FIP, a 45% ground-ball rate, and a far more sustainable profile overall.

Scherzer has benefited from an 83% strand rate and a low .252 BABIP—numbers that won't hold forever. Flip the jerseys and you'd think Keller was the Cy Young candidate and Scherzer the guy with 11 losses. But the market still assigns name value. That creates inefficiency. The Pirates are absolutely live here and we're on them at this number.

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