Bookmaker    -105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Texas -105 over Kansas City

Kauffman Stadium – Kansas City, MO

7:40 PM ET. Texas is in free fall. They’ve lost four straight to KC and 9 of 10 overall. They’re being bet against like they’ve packed it in—but their expected win-loss numbers tell a different story. The regression pendulum will swing back eventually. This is a bet that it starts swinging now.

Seth Lugo is the exact type of pitcher we love to fade. His 3.77 ERA masks ugly under-the-hood metrics: 5.13 xERA, 4.88 FIP, a weak 39% ground-ball rate. He’s been skating on thin ice all year. That ends.

Merrill Kelly, meanwhile, is sharp and efficient. His 3.36 ERA comes with sturdy support—44% ground balls, 3.72 FIP, and a top-five bullpen behind him. If he exits with a lead, it’s probably lights out

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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