Bookmaker    -105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Chicago -105 over Milwaukee (Game Two)

Wrigley Field – Chicago, IL

8:05 PM ET. Game Two is where we go hunting for the big fish: Brandon Woodruff.

His stat line looks pristine—4-0, 2.06 ERA, 0.74 WHIP—but he’s been living in fantasy land. A .174 BABIP and 100% strand rate? That’s not dominance. That’s unsustainable fortune. His 30% ground-ball rate means that when contact does come, it can fly—and the Cubs are built to punish mistakes.

Jameson Taillon isn’t elite. He’s been roughed up lately and the Brewers touched him up last month. So again, ask: why is this game a pick 'em?

Because oddsmakers know the storm is coming. Woodruff is due to get hit, and this is the wrong park and wrong opponent if that wall cracks. If Taillon finds the version of himself that has 10 quality starts this year, this ticket cashes easily.

We’re coming right back on Chicago in the nightcap. Two games, one mindset: fade the variance, ride the regression.

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