Bookmaker    -1½ +130

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Houston -1½ +130 over Detroit

Comerica Park – Detroit, MI

1:10 PM ET. A few weeks ago, nobody wanted Detroit. They were flailing, flatlining, and stuck in a spiral where winning felt like a coin flip. Now, after ripping off eight wins in their last ten—including three shutouts in five games and two straight over these Astros—the market’s suddenly in love again. That’s fine. Let them chase it. We’ll gladly fade the noise.

Houston’s dropped three straight and four of five. Their offense has gone quiet, and the perception is that the slide is real. But that’s the window. Because all things being equal, we’d still take Framber Valdez over Charlie Morton ten times out of ten. This isn’t “equal”—it’s a matchup priced with a gift attached.

Valdez has ace-level pedigree: 3.01 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, a filthy 60% groundball rate, and a FIP/SIERA combo that backs it all up. He doesn’t need luck. He’s the real deal. Morton, meanwhile, is 40 years old and throwing like it. His 5.21 ERA isn’t an outlier—it’s who he is. His WHIP is ballooned, his FIP and SIERA are ugly, and he’s not missing bats.

So yes, the Tigers have played good ball this week. But baseball is a starter-driven market, and today we get the vastly superior arm at a discounted run-line tag. We’re not interested in the split or the “hot team” narrative. We’re betting the guy who should dominate. Houston on the run line is the play.

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