Bookmaker    +115

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Washington +115 over New York Mets

Nationals Park – Washington, D.C.

4:05 PM ET. What matters most here isn’t the form, the rosters, or even the playoff race — it’s the price. The Mets closed as -188 and -160 favorites in the first two games of this series. Now the books are offering them at a discount. Why? Because this pitching matchup doesn’t warrant lumber — and when you look beneath the hood, the edge actually belongs to the Nationals.

Let’s start with the Mets. The narrative is all about urgency. New York is trying to hold onto a Wild Card spot and — depending on who you ask — maybe even chase down Philly for the division. That storyline boosts market perception. The Nats, meanwhile, are playing out the string, supposedly checked out and outmatched.

Except MacKenzie Gore is anything but checked out. Don’t be fooled by the 5-12 record or the 4.04 ERA. Gore is a high-ceiling arm stuck on a weak team. He’s striking out nearly 11 batters per nine (10.76 K/9), with a 3.50 FIP and 2.9 WAR. His inflated ERA is being driven by a .337 BABIP — an unsustainable number. The skills are elite.

Now contrast that with Sean Manaea. Once billed as a frontline piece, Manaea has been middling at best since returning from injury. His 4.78 ERA undersells the trouble — he hasn’t gone six innings since early July, and in August alone, he’s been tagged for 15 earned over 17 innings. He got rocked by Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Seattle. His xERA (3.90), FIP (4.27), and WAR (0.3) all come in below Gore. So does his velocity.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v