Bookmaker    -1½ +150

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Arizona -1½ +150 over Cincinnati

Chase Field – Phoenix, AZ

9:40 PM ET. Cincinnati comes in as the market darling. They sit just a half game behind the Mets for the final Wild Card spot, urgency at its highest while the schedule is still cushy enough to make up ground. They’ve also already swept Arizona earlier this season in Cincinnati, which gives them a layer of recency bias that bettors can’t resist. Despite all of that, the Reds are an underdog here — a signal worth paying attention to.

Zack Littell gets the ball for Cincinnati. On paper, he looks reliable at 9-8 with a 3.52 ERA. But the peripherals tell a very different story. Littell’s xERA sits at 4.52, his FIP at 4.65, and his SIERA at 4.32. All three metrics point to a pitcher who has been overperforming his true ability and is due for a correction. Against a lineup as potent as Arizona’s, that correction can come quickly and at a cost.

On the other side, Ryne Nelson has been quietly solid. His record (6-3, 3.58 ERA) matches the profile, but it’s the peripherals that separate him from Littell. Nelson owns a stronger xERA (4.03 vs. Littell’s 4.52), a better FIP (3.76), and a SIERA of 3.96, which grades out as good. In a straight-up comparison, Arizona has the better arm on the hill.

Neither bullpen is reliable, so volatility is in play. But in a likely high-scoring game, that volatility tilts toward the home side. Arizona is favored for good reason, and we’ll take the D-Backs to win by margin.

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