Bookmaker    -1½ +125

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota -1½ +125 over Chicago White Sox

Rate Field – Chicago, IL

7:15 PM ET. Where is Rod Serling? Imagine a day, if you will, where the White Sox actually held some curb appeal. Believe it or not, that day is today. The Twins have managed to drive their stock to season lows, to the point where the market refuses to back them, pricing them only modestly even against the worst team in the American League. When we see that kind of setup, it’s time to take a closer look.

Yes, Minnesota comes in ice cold. The Twinkies are just 2-8 in their last 10, fresh off an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the Athletics. On paper, it looks catastrophic. But compare that to the Southsiders, who are 3-13 in their last 16, and you realize one team’s misfortunes are simply getting more attention. Circumspection applied, some may conjecture that the White Sox are worth a look here — Minnesota looks untrustworthy, while Chicago is at least losing on-brand. But that’s the trap. We know the Twins’ stock is depleted, and that’s exactly the kind of spot we want to buy into — especially given the glaring discrepancy in starting arms.

Sean Burke takes the ball for Chicago, lugging in a 4-10 record with a 4.28 ERA. His variance is neutral, meaning his surface numbers are more or less a true reflection of his ability. But peripherals show he may actually be pitching worse than the baseline suggests: 5.06 xERA, 4.85 FIP, 4.57 SIERA. Burke is a marked man with a profile like that.

Zebby Matthews, meanwhile, is far better than his 3-4 record and 5.06 ERA suggest. He’s been absolutely torched by variance — an outrageous .368 BABIP. Even so, his xERA sits at 4.08, nearly a run better than Burke’s, with a superb 3.59 FIP and an elite 3.22 SIERA. The deeper the starters go, the wider the gap becomes, and the more likely this game trends toward a multi-run Minnesota victory.

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