Bookmaker    -1½ +135

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Baltimore -1½ +135 over Houston

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

7:05 PM ET. You’re paying for wins with Houston — that’s the only explanation for why Cristian Javier would be seen as equal to Dean Kremer in this matchup. Javier has the shinier ERA, sure. But his ground ball rate is brutal, and Camden Yards punishes fly ball pitchers with poor command.

Javier doesn’t miss barrels. Kremer has better peripherals, a better FIP, and in this spot, a better matchup. The Orioles are priced like they should win comfortably. That’s the cue. Fade Javier. Back the better arm at a discount.

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