Bookmaker   +120

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Francisco +120 over Milwaukee

American Family Field

7:30 PM ET. Freddy Peralta has fooled the market all year. Great record, pretty ERA, big brand. But the cracks are there — a .246 BABIP, an inflated strand rate, and walk numbers that scream volatility.

Logan Webb, meanwhile, has been a victim of bad luck and no support. Yet his FIP is elite (2.55), his command is pristine, and he quietly has a higher WAR than Peralta despite playing for a worse team.

This is a matchup of mirage vs. machine. We’re backing the guy who’s been better in every way except the one the public pays attention to — record. Strip the jerseys off, and Webb is the ace. At +120? That’s a green light.

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