Bookmaker    +130

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Boston +130 over NY Yankeees

Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY

7:10 PM ET. Forget the rivalry noise. Forget the idea that the Yankees “can’t” get swept at home. That’s just narrative junk that gets filtered into the market and baked into the line. We’re not buying it. We’re buying into a flawed starter with a ticking clock — and a dangerous lineup on the other side that’s fully capable of lighting the fuse.

Carlos Rodón’s surface stats still hold up — 13-7, 3.24 ERA, 1.07 WHIP — but none of that holds water when you dig one layer deeper. Rodón leads the Majors in lowest BABIP (.230) among qualified starters, which is the clearest red flag of all. He’s been the league’s biggest benefactor of luck and sequencing, and regression isn’t just coming — it’s overdue.

The warning signs are all over the place. A blowup against Miami. A six-run outing against the Mets. Just three quality starts in his last nine tries. Rodón’s been dancing through landmines all year, and every time he’s walked off unscathed, it’s pushed his stock higher. That’s where the value lives — in fading a guy who looks better than he is.

Enter the Red Sox. Top-six in average, OBP, slugging, and OPS. They’re scoring over five runs a game and they just torched this same Yankees team 12-1. This isn’t a fluke. Boston’s approach at the plate is built to expose arms like Rodón — ones surviving on smoke, mirrors, and soft contact that isn’t sustainable.

Boston has now won four straight, and with the brooms out and nothing to lose, they’re loose and dangerous. The Yankees, meanwhile, are pressing. They’ve dropped five of six, their offense is cold, and they’ve got a starter whose good luck charm is about to crack.

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