Bookmaker    +150

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

L.A. Aangels +150 over Texas

Globe Life Park – Arlington, TX

8:00 PM ET. You’re supposed to stay away from Jacob deGrom. We get it. He’s a machine. But even machines glitch, and the cracks are there.

DeGrom’s BABIP (.236) and strand rate (85%) are top-tier, but they’re also unsustainable over time. His ERA sparkles, but that’s been padded by sequencing luck and soft matchups.

Jose Soriano, meanwhile, looks like chopped liver at 0-3 against Texas. What that ignores is his 65% ground ball rate and a profile that plays against a Texas lineup that doesn’t walk, doesn’t grind, and doesn’t scare anyone when the wind isn’t blowing out.

This one’s simple: we get variance in our favor, a long number on a live dog, and an offense (LAA) that’s cracked the top five in homers. This isn’t blind faith — it’s the perfect storm.

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