Bookmaker     -1½ +170

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Francisco -1½ +170 over Chicago Cubs

Oracle Park – San Francisco, CA

3:40 PM ET. This is luck versus skill. Shota Imanaga looks shiny on paper (3.03 ERA, 8-6 record), but peel back the layers: .212 BABIP, 85% strand rate, 29% groundball rate, 4.33 FIP, 4.31 SIERA. That profile screams correction.

Logan Webb, meanwhile, is everything Imanaga isn’t. He’s the real deal: 52% groundball rate, 2.59 FIP, 3.10 SIERA, 4.4 WAR. His 3.69 ERA is inflated by bad luck (.339 BABIP, 76% strand rate). Normalize his variance, and Webb is an ace.

If Webb wore a Cubs jersey, Chicago would be -160 today. Instead, we’re being offered San Francisco as a slight favorite with +170 on the run line. That’s value. Giants at the margin.

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