Bookmaker    +110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota +110 over San Diego

Target Field – Minneapolis, MN

8:10 PM ET. This number reeks. San Diego is a playoff lock at 75-59. Minnesota is buried at 60-73 and has dropped 7 of its last 10. The Friars look like the obvious side, yet they’re barely favored. That’s not by accident.

San Diego sends Nestor Cortes, a soft-tossing lefty whose profile screams blowup: 4.66 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, a 34% groundball rate, and peripherals that paint an even uglier picture — 5.54 xERA, 7+ FIP. He’s running on fumes with unsustainable variance (a .203 BABIP and 92% strand rate). His WAR sits in the red at -0.5. He actively hurts San Diego’s win probability.

Minnesota goes with Zebby Matthews, whose surface numbers (3-4, 5.66 ERA) are hiding a far more capable arm. He throws 96, misses bats (11.5 K/9), doesn’t walk the park, and owns a 3.83 FIP with a positive WAR. His inflated ERA is the product of extreme misfortune — a .376 BABIP against him has nowhere to go but down.

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