Bookmaker  +115

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Baltimore +115 over San Francisco

Oracle Park – San Francisco, CA

4:05 PM ET. Justin Verlander is still being priced like the ace of five years ago. The name on the back of the jersey carries more weight than the stuff coming off his arm. A 2-10 record and 4.47 ERA don’t lie, yet the market continues to inflate San Francisco because of reputation. One win over the Cubs doesn’t erase the fact that he gave up five or more in two of his previous three starts and couldn’t get through five innings in either. That’s not stability—it’s a red flag.

Sugano is the opposite. His August form—2-1 with a 2.86 ERA—shows a pitcher in rhythm, with one shaky start against Boston not nearly enough to cancel the body of work. He’s been the better arm all season, and there’s no debate on current reliability.

Strip away the uniforms and legacy names, and this matchup isn’t close. Baltimore has the better pitcher, and they’re being offered at plus money. That’s our cue. We’ll take the Orioles.

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