Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New York Mets -1½ +125 over Cincinnati

Great American Ballpark – Cincinnati, OH

6:40 PM ET. Narrative drives markets this time of year, and this one is dripping with it. The Reds are being sold as the desperate team, clinging to faint playoff hopes and “needing” this series to keep them alive. That urgency is supposed to mean something, as if the Mets don’t care about clinching their own spot. We’ve been through this before — “must-win” is the oldest losing angle in the book. Every game is a must-win in September, and the notion that one dugout wants it more is a fairy tale.

On paper, the Reds look live. Andrew Abbott is their “stopper,” and he gets the ball against David Peterson, who was tattooed for eight runs in two innings his last time out. Sprinkle in Cincinnati’s desperation and it feels like the obvious side. That’s precisely the trap.

Peterson’s surface numbers look worse because of variance. His FIP (3.38) is cleaner than Abbott’s (3.65), his sinker generates grounders at a 55% clip compared to Abbott’s fly-ball heavy 30%, and his BABIP luck has trended the wrong way. Strip away noise and Peterson is the better arm. That ground-ball edge in this park is enormous.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offers

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v