Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota +115 over Kansas City

Kauffman Stadium – Kansas City, MO

7:40 PM ET. The story writes itself: the Twins are dead in the water, Kansas City is fighting for a playoff spot, and Minnesota just got swept by the White Sox. Perfect. That’s the exact type of setup that drives the market in one direction — toward the “motivated” team. The Royals look like the obvious side. They aren’t.

Minnesota is priced as a dog because of optics, not substance. Had they not faceplanted against Chicago, they’d be chalk here because they own the superior starter. Pablo López (3.05 FIP, 3.65 SIERA, over a strikeout per inning) misses bats, limits hard contact, and is the definition of reliable. Michael Wacha (3.60 FIP, 4.56 SIERA, 6.5 K/9) is marketable because of his name and ERA, but he’s a fade when lined against an ace.

This boils down to quality versus storyline. The Royals’ “urgency” is irrelevant if López is carving them up, and Minnesota’s offensive ineptitude is overstated by a four-game hiccup. Better pitcher, better value. Wrong team favored. Twins it is

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