Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

ATlanta +110 over Chicago Cubs

Truist Park – Atlanta, GA

7:15 PM ET. Atlanta looked like Little Leaguers yesterday, getting thumped 18-2 by Seattle. That kind of embarrassment creates value in the follow-up, because the market overreacts to one ugly box score. The Braves’ season is cooked, while the Cubs are playing for October. Yet despite all that, Atlanta is priced like a threat. That’s the signal.

Shota Imanaga has been a frequent fade target. His 9-6, 3.15 ERA looks sharp, but the luck metrics don’t lie: .208 BABIP, 86% strand rate. He’s been skating. Bryce Elder looks worse on the surface (6-9, 5.54 ERA), but his luck has run cold (.303 BABIP, 66% LOB%). Strip it down to FIP, and the gap vanishes — Imanaga 4.58, Elder 4.72.

Profiles matter. Imanaga tops out at 90 and gets grounders just 29% of the time. That’s a dangerous mix against Atlanta’s still-potent power bats. Elder leans sinker/ground ball at a 50% clip, the right profile against a Cubs lineup that hunts the long ball. Wrong pitcher favored, wrong spot for Imanaga. Braves are the value.

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