Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Philadelphia +107 over New York Mets

Citizens Bank Park – Philadelphia, PA

6:45 PM ET. The Mets own the Phillies. They’ve taken eight of the last ten and swept Philly in Queens just two weeks ago. With Nolan McLean — the Mets’ shiny new toy — on the mound in what’s deemed a “must-win” for their Wild Card chase, New York looks like the side. The market certainly thinks so. But as is often the case, appearances deceive.

McLean’s rookie line sparkles: 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA, numbers not seen since Tom Seaver. The hype is deserved, but the sustainability isn’t. He’s riding a .206 BABIP and an 87% strand rate, both screaming regression. Good pitcher, no doubt, but nowhere near untouchable.

Across from him is Aaron Nola, who looks like a disaster at 3-8 with a 6.78 ERA. On paper it’s a mismatch. So why then are the Phillies such a modest dog at home? That’s the tell. Nola’s misfortune has been variance-driven — a .344 BABIP and 62% LOB rate. Correct those, and suddenly this matchup levels out. Factor in a shaky Mets pen and an offense that’s gone cold for long stretches, and Philly is very live. This price says it all.

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