Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Cleveland -1½   +160 over Kansas City

Progressive Field – Cleveland, OH

6:40 PM ET. 6Noah Cameron’s 3.03 ERA looks fine on paper, but the underpinning is unsustainable—his success is being driven by a fluky low BABIP and a strand rate that will not hold. Joey Cantillo, meanwhile, has the opposite story: his surface stats don’t pop, but his xERA and FIP show he’s the steadier, truer arm.

That’s why Cleveland is favored despite what the ERAs say. Spotting the extra run at this price is the right play, because variance eventually catches up.

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