Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Arizona-1½ +150 over San Francisco

Oracle Park – San Francisco, CA

3:45 PM ET. The market is inflating San Francisco on urgency alone. They’re chasing the Mets for the last Wild Card and the story writes itself: must-win game, at home, against a division rival. Except “must-win” doesn’t equal “will win,” and when you actually break down the arms, the wrong team is favored.

Carson Seymour has just three starts under his belt, a 4.25 ERA, and peripherals that don’t lie: 6.43 xERA, 6.61 FIP. Those are disaster numbers. Eduardo Rodriguez has been unlucky all year (high BABIP, low strand rate), but his FIP/xERA both sit in the mid-fours, much stronger than Seymour. If either guy pitches to their true profile, Arizona is the clear superior.

The Giants’ recent three-game streak in this series has tilted perception, but the alternate lines tell the truth — Arizona winning by margin is priced shorter than San Francisco winning outright. That’s the market tipping its hand. Wrong side favored, better arm at a better price, and a setup for Arizona to cruise.

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