Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

The Athletics +115 over Boston

Sutter Health Park – Sacramento, CA

3:35 PM ET. This is baseball in its purest form — a high-variance toss-up dressed up as something else. Payton Tolle and Mason Barnett are essentially mystery boxes, and with a total of 10.5 hanging, chaos is baked right in. When the game projects to be a coin flip in a run-fest environment, the right play is always the dog.

The market sees Boston chasing a Wild Card berth, having already pocketed the first two games of this series, and assumes the broom is coming out. That’s lazy. Oddsmakers didn’t hang Oakland at +150 or worse — they opened them live. That’s your cue.

Boston also has the Yankees waiting at Fenway this weekend, a pivotal set with home-field implications. This is the look-ahead spot of look-ahead spots. The Sox will show up, but if they’re even 5% short of locked in, that opens the door for a free-rolling underdog with zero pressure. The number, the timing, and the spot all scream the same thing: A’s or pass.

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