Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Washington +105 over Miami

loanDepot Park – Miami, FL

6:40 PM ET. Forget records, forget reputations. This comes down to arms, and Washington has the better one at the better price. MacKenzie Gore has frontline stuff — high-90s fastball, double-digit K rate — but he’s stuck on a bottom-tier team that gives him no help. Ryan Weathers has the nice ERA at 3.28, but it’s smoke and mirrors. His BABIP luck sits at .212, while Gore’s is an unlucky .330.

Check the real indicators: Gore owns a 3.69 FIP and 3.68 SIERA, both far superior to Weathers’ 4.48 FIP and 4.18 SIERA. Gore is the strikeout machine, Weathers is just a guy.

The market looks at the uniforms, sees Miami as the “better team,” and assumes Washington should be buried. That’s how you get value. Gore at plus money in this spot is a gift. Nationals are live, and we’ll bite.

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