Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Baltimore -1½ +135 over Pittsburgh

Oriole Park at Camden Yards – Baltimore, MD

1:05 PM ET. The market is drunk on Johan Oviedo. He’s rocking a glossy 2.70 ERA and a shiny 2-0 record through five starts, and that’s enough for the buy-low brigade to come running. Never mind that he’s living on a .205 BABIP and an 80% strand rate — numbers that scream unsustainable. On the other side, Cade Povich has been saddled with a .337 BABIP and a 68% strand rate, which is why his 5.16 ERA looks like a crime scene. That’s variance, not truth.

Strip away the noise and the actual skill sets tell a different story. Povich misses bats, induces more groundballs than Oviedo, and owns a SIERA of 3.91 compared to Oviedo’s 4.17. Translation: Povich is the better pitcher, Oviedo is the fraud.

Baltimore’s lineup at Camden Yards is a problem for anyone, especially a pitcher due for a reckoning. Pittsburgh doesn’t have the offense to answer back if Oviedo gets hit, which is very likely. This is the exact spot where the market gets fooled by surface stats, and we’ll gladly step in. Laying the run and a half with the O’s at plus money is the side.

Take advantage of BET365's early payout offers

For straight bets,

Football  if the team you back to win goes up 17 points at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

Hockey: if the team you back to win goes up 4 goals at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

BASEBALL: if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

Basketball: if the team you back to win goes up 21 points at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

Applies to parlays and Same Game Parlays also!!!!