Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota -1½ +165 over Arizona

Target Field – Minneapolis, MN

8:10 PM ET. The market still wants to pump up Brandon Pfaadt, but the numbers don’t lie. He’s got 13 wins but a 5.18 ERA, a 5.61 xERA, and a 4.19 FIP. That’s not a profile to trust as road chalk, especially when backed by a bullpen with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Arizona’s offense has papered over the flaws, but regression looms.

Minnesota has the clear edge on the mound with Pablo López. His 2.84 ERA is legit, his FIP is 3.17, and he has the stuff to shut down a lineup that’s carried Arizona all year. This isn’t complicated. Pfaadt is hittable, the bullpen is weak, and the Twins have the better starter. At a big price on the run line, Minnesota is the right side.

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